Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 15, 2014 18:41:06 GMT -6
If you didn't see earlier today, the SPC has placed the central gulf coast in its first ever "Marginal" Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX
COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER
THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF A PERSISTENT WESTERN CANADA/CONUS BLOCKING
RIDGE. AIDED BY AN AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...A MODIFYING/NORTHWARD-DEVELOPING MARITIME
AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME SEVERE RISK SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...COLD/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH A VIRTUALLY
NIL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
...UPPER TX COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...WELL TO THE EAST OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS PATTERN AND RELATED TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RELATIVELY STEADY ABATEMENT OF INLAND COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES...WITH A MODIFIED MARITIME AIR MASS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADVANCING SOMEWHAT INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER
TX COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. INLAND AWAY FROM COASTAL
AREAS...THIS TREND WILL BE DETERRED HOWEVER BY AN INLAND
INCREASE/EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY/EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MOIST
TRAJECTORIES AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S F IN THE
INLAND-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AND
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 40-50 KT 1-2 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
WITH SOME TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO OTHER
PARTS OF LA/SOUTHERN MS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2014
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX
COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER
THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF A PERSISTENT WESTERN CANADA/CONUS BLOCKING
RIDGE. AIDED BY AN AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...A MODIFYING/NORTHWARD-DEVELOPING MARITIME
AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME SEVERE RISK SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...COLD/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH A VIRTUALLY
NIL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
...UPPER TX COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...WELL TO THE EAST OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS PATTERN AND RELATED TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RELATIVELY STEADY ABATEMENT OF INLAND COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES...WITH A MODIFIED MARITIME AIR MASS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADVANCING SOMEWHAT INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER
TX COAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. INLAND AWAY FROM COASTAL
AREAS...THIS TREND WILL BE DETERRED HOWEVER BY AN INLAND
INCREASE/EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY/EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MOIST
TRAJECTORIES AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S F IN THE
INLAND-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AND
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 40-50 KT 1-2 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
WITH SOME TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO OTHER
PARTS OF LA/SOUTHERN MS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2014
