Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 29, 2015 3:10:57 GMT -6
LIX morning discussion:
NEXT LOCAL WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...BUT AS THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LAGS BEHIND AND THE SURFACE FRONT ELONGATES AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOVEMENT AND
MESSY WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AND PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
AGAIN BY SATURDAY. THE HIGH PW VALUES COMBINED WITH A BIT MORE
CONVECTIVE FORCING WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IN
SOME STORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. THOUGH THESE TOTALS ARE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW WITH OUR
LAST RAIN MAKER...IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THUS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...AND RAINFALL RATES WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO BE MUCH HIGHER. ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THAT WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING RECEIVED 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE LAST WEEK...THE
GROUND CANNOT HOLD NEARLY AS MUCH WATER AS WITH LAST WEEK/S
SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS IN AGREEMENT AS THE DAY THREE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY. WIND PROFILES SHOW DECENT TURNING THROUGH LOW
LEVELS WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OWING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY SOARS TO BETWEEN 250 AND 350 M2/S2 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
EXISTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NEXT LOCAL WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...BUT AS THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LAGS BEHIND AND THE SURFACE FRONT ELONGATES AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOVEMENT AND
MESSY WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AND PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
AGAIN BY SATURDAY. THE HIGH PW VALUES COMBINED WITH A BIT MORE
CONVECTIVE FORCING WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IN
SOME STORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. THOUGH THESE TOTALS ARE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW WITH OUR
LAST RAIN MAKER...IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THUS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...AND RAINFALL RATES WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO BE MUCH HIGHER. ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER THAT WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING RECEIVED 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE LAST WEEK...THE
GROUND CANNOT HOLD NEARLY AS MUCH WATER AS WITH LAST WEEK/S
SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS IN AGREEMENT AS THE DAY THREE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY. WIND PROFILES SHOW DECENT TURNING THROUGH LOW
LEVELS WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OWING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY SOARS TO BETWEEN 250 AND 350 M2/S2 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
EXISTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
