Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Mar 17, 2016 4:18:41 GMT -6
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A PORTION OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. OTHER STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MIGHT OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
U.S. THURSDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE ERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM ERN TX
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THAT REGION.
...EASTERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST
IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE CAP IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH WWD
EXTENT INTO TX...CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
COVERAGE. DESPITE WEAK FORCING...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE GREATER OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM WILL BE WEAK...BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND SPLITTING CELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...NEW ENGLAND...
DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL.
..DIAL/JEWELL.. 03/17/2016
