Severe Weather Threat - 01/20-01/21
Jan 21, 2016 11:02:47 GMT -6
DYLAN FEDERICO and nolastratus like this
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 21, 2016 11:02:47 GMT -6
Like clockwork....
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211659Z - 211900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB SFC LOW TO THE
NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
LA WITH THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED IN SE TX AND SCNTRL LA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN CNTRL
LA TO THE MID 60S F NEAR THE LA COAST. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF SW
LA AND ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
NEAR 250 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH ROTATING STORMS OR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211659Z - 211900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB SFC LOW TO THE
NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
LA WITH THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED IN SE TX AND SCNTRL LA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN CNTRL
LA TO THE MID 60S F NEAR THE LA COAST. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF SW
LA AND ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
NEAR 250 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH ROTATING STORMS OR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016
