Severe Weather Discussion - Monday 11/28 - Tuesday 11/29

NOTE: We will be transitioning into Storm Mode sometime later tonight here. So it will stop snowing for a couple days or so

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GET ORGANIZED TODAY OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING
AND MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. IN ADDITION... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE.

LAZ028-029-031>033-041>043-073-074-TXZ215-216-281300-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0017.161128T1500Z-161129T0000Z/
RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...PINEVILLE...EFFIE...
MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...MANSURA...
OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...BEAVER...ST. LANDRY...MAMOU...
REDDELL...LAWTELL...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...
HATHAWAY...JENNINGS...TOPSY...ROANOKE...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...
CROWLEY...RAYNE...BRANCH...CHURCH POINT...RICHARD...HACKBERRY...
JOHNSON BAYOU...GRAND LAKE...KLONDIKE...CAMERON...CREOLE...
GRAND CHENIER...RUTHERFORD BEACH...BEAUMONT...SABINE PASS...
SEA RIM STATE PARK...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
1100 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* TIMING...9 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.

* WINDS...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL IN A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLE ALONG EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES. ALSO... LIGHT AND UNTETHERED ITEMS
MAY BE BLOWN AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

Brand new Day 1 Outlook....



...EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO AL AND TN...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST
TX MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT. ANOTHER CORRIDOR
OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE...FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY COULD
HAVE ROTATION POTENTIAL...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL OCCUR LATER IN
THE DAY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS VIA MOIST ADVECTION AND ALSO WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE LEADING
ACTIVITY...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...MAY BECOME SEVERE.
SHEAR WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WHILE A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST FROM
NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE STRONGEST LIFT...YET WITH BETTER ACCESS TO GREATER INSTABILITY...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT RAIN AND STORMS PRIOR TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST...THUS
WILL DEFER POSSIBILITY OF ANY GREATER 10% TORNADO CORRIDOR TO LATER
OUTLOOKS.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The Cold front that will be affecting our area later today and
tonight is currently getting organized from Witchita Falls to
Abilene moving to the southeast. This front will eventually become
disorganized as columnal winds parallel the boundary. But that
won`t occur until after it has moved into our area. This will
effectively cause the front to become a prefrontal wave(trough) as
it moves through our area this evening. The only way to be able to
find this boundary will be via dp temps and a line of sh/ts. Winds
associated with the boundary will be more of a convective element
and shift briefly out of the southwest as the line of sh/ts passes.
The synoptic winds will remain south to southeast even after the
boundary moves through. The isodrosotherm gradient will not make
it through the area either and will rapidly begin to exit back to
the north ahead of the next front. The next more vigorous cold
front begins to develop and move through the area for Tuesday
Night. The first prefrontal trough will have some moderate to
strong dynamics with it this afternoon and evening. But the
actual cold front that moves through Tuesnight will have the best
upper/mid support and stronger kinematics. The only thing both
these systems will be lacking is buoyancy due to heating which is
why cape values are so low. But buoyancy due to dynamic forcing
can be worse than just heating alone. It`s when both of these
forcing variables are coupled just right is when we witness the
worst conditions of all. SPC has set our area in 3 different
outlook values. The first is an Enhanced Risk located over the
southwest most Mississippi counties. The second is a Slight Risk
located over most of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
The third is a Marginal Risk located over areas south of Lake
Pontchartrain. This is mainly due to sfc buoyancy not playing as
much of a role with a cooler marine boundary layer advecting
inland. But as mentioned earlier, we are well aware of the strong
dynamic forcing and there is a piece of energy that moves se along
the Mississipp River late this afteroon and evening that could
produce an isolated severe ts, so just to keep awareness
heightened, we will keep the mention of Slight Risk for the areas
south of Lake Pontchartrain as well.

First severe weather threat in a while here. Doubt we get anything in Baton Rouge though.