2017 Atlantic Discussion Thread #2

Just some thoughts heading down the road regarding the N gulfcoast. We certainly have not had a very dominant high pressure setup as in recent years. This is characterized by lower temps and more precipitation. We just have not had the mid 90's yet. I remember 2012 and it seemed to rain or storm in a general area from Mobile to Destin almost everyday. The same is happening this spring/ summer so far. This current infiltration of dry air is short lived and the models all depict a basic feed from the gulf continuing shortly. In addition there appears to be a "weakness" draped from Houston across the gulfcoast to the Georgia and northern Fla. area. This is nature making up for the drought that has plagued the extreme Southeast IMO. So,in the most basic sense.....the gulf seems open for business and the Atlantic ridge is positioned to steer invests toward the west or so. We have also seen MDR disturbances a little early so far.
It's all about timing troughs or weakness but I'm concerned that we just won't have that "death heat ridge" protection for any extended period of time going into game time. Again, just my ideas and take on observations thus far. Comments?

You are correct in that observation grisairgasm

We have been lacking that protective ridge so far early in this season. Something to really keep a close eye on as things get picked up!

The 12Z GFS has this developing In about a week.   At about 192 hrs it starts up and is there until the model ends hr 384.

It seems models are almost *always* too far north with systems. Perhaps they underestimate the strength of ridges, or perhaps they intensify the systems too rapidly. I recall Dean 2007, which was forecast by the long-range GFS weeks out very nicely, but had a monster storms striking New England, Miami and Brownsville. Eventually, the Cat 5 storm struck Mexico.

Here it comes.

chloe06 not sure if Scot was going to log back in tonight, but no real change down there...just going to be bringing the rain back in the picture.