Interestingly, the 12z Euro picked up on rapid development (and dissipation) of the wave emerging from Africa in about 3 days that the GFS was previously developing. Decent support from the GFS ensembles and modest support from the Euro ensembles.
Post by grisairgasm on Jun 26, 2017 16:12:07 GMT -6
Just some thoughts heading down the road regarding the N gulfcoast. We certainly have not had a very dominant high pressure setup as in recent years. This is characterized by lower temps and more precipitation. We just have not had the mid 90's yet. I remember 2012 and it seemed to rain or storm in a general area from Mobile to Destin almost everyday. The same is happening this spring/ summer so far. This current infiltration of dry air is short lived and the models all depict a basic feed from the gulf continuing shortly. In addition there appears to be a "weakness" draped from Houston across the gulfcoast to the Georgia and northern Fla. area. This is nature making up for the drought that has plagued the extreme Southeast IMO. So,in the most basic sense.....the gulf seems open for business and the Atlantic ridge is positioned to steer invests toward the west or so. We have also seen MDR disturbances a little early so far. It's all about timing troughs or weakness but I'm concerned that we just won't have that "death heat ridge" protection for any extended period of time going into game time. Again, just my ideas and take on observations thus far. Comments?
It seems models are almost *always* too far north with systems. Perhaps they underestimate the strength of ridges, or perhaps they intensify the systems too rapidly. I recall Dean 2007, which was forecast by the long-range GFS weeks out very nicely, but had a monster storms striking New England, Miami and Brownsville. Eventually, the Cat 5 storm struck Mexico.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jun 27, 2017 13:20:07 GMT -6
The western Gulf of Mexico is certainly firing off a lot of convection this afternoon. Believe it or not, some of the added moisture in the Western Gulf of Mexico right now has loose ties to former Tropical Storm Bret, as the remnant wave axis moved westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A very weak surface low pressure system appears to have formed just east of Brownsville this afternoon. Any tropical development looks very unlikely. But, anytime a stationary frontal boundary hangs out in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days, I still keep a weary eye on it. A few higher resolution models(NAM & WRF) show a weak surface-low reflection moving towards southeastern Texas & south Louisiana. Regardless of development, this tropical wave axis does look to increase our rain chances for south Louisiana Wednesday through Friday. Latest Euro shows 2-6 inches of rain from Lake Charles to New Orleans between now and Friday afternoon.
The western Gulf of Mexico is certainly firing off a lot of convection this afternoon. Believe it or not, some of the added moisture in the Western Gulf of Mexico right now has loose ties to former Tropical Storm Bret, as the remnant wave axis moved westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A very weak surface low pressure system appears to have formed just east of Brownsville this afternoon. Any tropical development looks very unlikely. But, anytime a stationary frontal boundary hangs out in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days, I still keep a weary eye on it. A few higher resolution models(NAM & WRF) show a weak surface-low reflection moving towards southeastern Texas & south Louisiana. Regardless of development, this tropical wave axis does look to increase our rain chances for south Louisiana Wednesday through Friday. Latest Euro shows 2-6 inches of rain from Lake Charles to New Orleans between now and Friday afternoon.
Any updates on this?
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