All quiet on the 12z GFS today. The ITCZ is still a a low latitude so most of that action is running into South America.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Interestingly, the 12z Euro picked up on rapid development (and dissipation) of the wave emerging from Africa in about 3 days that the GFS was previously developing. Decent support from the GFS ensembles and modest support from the Euro ensembles.
Post by grisairgasm on Jun 26, 2017 16:12:07 GMT -6
Just some thoughts heading down the road regarding the N gulfcoast. We certainly have not had a very dominant high pressure setup as in recent years. This is characterized by lower temps and more precipitation. We just have not had the mid 90's yet. I remember 2012 and it seemed to rain or storm in a general area from Mobile to Destin almost everyday. The same is happening this spring/ summer so far. This current infiltration of dry air is short lived and the models all depict a basic feed from the gulf continuing shortly. In addition there appears to be a "weakness" draped from Houston across the gulfcoast to the Georgia and northern Fla. area. This is nature making up for the drought that has plagued the extreme Southeast IMO. So,in the most basic sense.....the gulf seems open for business and the Atlantic ridge is positioned to steer invests toward the west or so. We have also seen MDR disturbances a little early so far. It's all about timing troughs or weakness but I'm concerned that we just won't have that "death heat ridge" protection for any extended period of time going into game time. Again, just my ideas and take on observations thus far. Comments?
We have been lacking that protective ridge so far early in this season. Something to really keep a close eye on as things get picked up!
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
It seems models are almost *always* too far north with systems. Perhaps they underestimate the strength of ridges, or perhaps they intensify the systems too rapidly. I recall Dean 2007, which was forecast by the long-range GFS weeks out very nicely, but had a monster storms striking New England, Miami and Brownsville. Eventually, the Cat 5 storm struck Mexico.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jun 27, 2017 13:20:07 GMT -6
The western Gulf of Mexico is certainly firing off a lot of convection this afternoon. Believe it or not, some of the added moisture in the Western Gulf of Mexico right now has loose ties to former Tropical Storm Bret, as the remnant wave axis moved westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A very weak surface low pressure system appears to have formed just east of Brownsville this afternoon. Any tropical development looks very unlikely. But, anytime a stationary frontal boundary hangs out in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days, I still keep a weary eye on it. A few higher resolution models(NAM & WRF) show a weak surface-low reflection moving towards southeastern Texas & south Louisiana. Regardless of development, this tropical wave axis does look to increase our rain chances for south Louisiana Wednesday through Friday. Latest Euro shows 2-6 inches of rain from Lake Charles to New Orleans between now and Friday afternoon.
The western Gulf of Mexico is certainly firing off a lot of convection this afternoon. Believe it or not, some of the added moisture in the Western Gulf of Mexico right now has loose ties to former Tropical Storm Bret, as the remnant wave axis moved westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A very weak surface low pressure system appears to have formed just east of Brownsville this afternoon. Any tropical development looks very unlikely. But, anytime a stationary frontal boundary hangs out in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days, I still keep a weary eye on it. A few higher resolution models(NAM & WRF) show a weak surface-low reflection moving towards southeastern Texas & south Louisiana. Regardless of development, this tropical wave axis does look to increase our rain chances for south Louisiana Wednesday through Friday. Latest Euro shows 2-6 inches of rain from Lake Charles to New Orleans between now and Friday afternoon.
Any updates on this?
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
chloe06 not sure if Scot was going to log back in tonight, but no real change down there...just going to be bringing the rain back in the picture.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
A look at Africa tonight...something's gonna have to come from this over the next couple weeks I'd think.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
