Emily Discussion Thread

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,591	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 12:35:44 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 30, 2017 12:35:44 GMT -6 Invest 98L has been designated to the low pressure area with the frontal Boundary south of Apalachicola area.
	Last Edit: Jul 31, 2017 5:49:59 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 2,775	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 14:58:47 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 30, 2017 14:58:47 GMT -6 Where is it heading long term?

nolasim Moderator Posts: 5,930 Staff Member	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 15:40:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2017 15:40:10 GMT -6 Jul 30, 2017 14:58:47 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said: Where is it heading long term? This might give an idea, but as with several invests so far this season, it's really too early to indicate anything definitive.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

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Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 15:41:52 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2017 15:41:52 GMT -6

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over

the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of

Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally

conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical

characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the

central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic

by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to

produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and

northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see

additional information from your local National Weather Service

Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,591	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 20:53:16 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 30, 2017 20:53:16 GMT -6 Still a very impressive circulation on radar of the small surface low now just west of Tampa Bay.

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 7,936 Staff Member	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2017 21:38:55 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 30, 2017 21:38:55 GMT -6 At this rate we may wake up to a TD. I'd say the organization with this thing continues to improve. If convection can deepen and expand enough overnight, it will get the NHC thinking first thing in the morning.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 3:44:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 3:44:03 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 4:12:43 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 4:12:43 GMT -6
	Last Edit: Jul 31, 2017 4:12:59 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Dutar76 GCWX Supporter Posts: 778	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 5:22:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Dutar76 on Jul 31, 2017 5:22:10 GMT -6 That was quick. Looks like storms are trying to wrap the center this morning. Could make TS before it gets to Florida. It's gonna be close.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 5:50:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 5:50:10 GMT -6 Well that was fast
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

kelkel47 Tropical Low Posts: 25	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 6:41:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by kelkel47 on Jul 31, 2017 6:41:10 GMT -6 I'm in the Tampa Bay Area. Just woke up to the news we have Emily! We're a little north of the center so nothing yet, but seems it's getting a little wet just south of us!

shonsu - Napoleonville GCWX Supporter Posts: 204	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 6:48:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shonsu - Napoleonville on Jul 31, 2017 6:48:57 GMT -6 It's amazing how fast this one has ramped up.

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Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 7:22:27 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 31, 2017 7:22:27 GMT -6

Jul 31, 2017 6:41:10 GMT -6 kelkel47 said:

I'm in the Tampa Bay Area. Just woke up to the news we have Emily! We're a little north of the center so nothing yet, but seems it's getting a little wet just south of us!

Keep us up to date on your conditions...

Zack Fradella
FOX 8 Meteorologist
StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder

For Regular Weather Updates
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trueblue GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,774 Location: Raceland, LA Member is Online	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 8:20:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trueblue on Jul 31, 2017 8:20:57 GMT -6 Wait...what? That was fast.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Emily Discussion Thread Jul 31, 2017 11:04:54 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 11:04:54 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Emily Discussion Thread

Post by ndg on Jul 30, 2017 12:35:44 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 30, 2017 14:58:47 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2017 15:40:10 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2017 15:41:52 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 30, 2017 20:53:16 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 30, 2017 21:38:55 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 3:44:03 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 4:12:43 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Jul 31, 2017 5:22:10 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 5:50:10 GMT -6

Post by kelkel47 on Jul 31, 2017 6:41:10 GMT -6

Post by shonsu - Napoleonville on Jul 31, 2017 6:48:57 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 31, 2017 7:22:27 GMT -6

Post by trueblue on Jul 31, 2017 8:20:57 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Jul 31, 2017 11:04:54 GMT -6

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