Emily Discussion Thread

Where is it heading long term?

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over

the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of

Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally

conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical

characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the

central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic

by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to

produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and

northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see

additional information from your local National Weather Service

Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Stewart

At this rate we may wake up to a TD. I'd say the organization with this thing continues to improve. If convection can deepen and expand enough overnight, it will get the NHC thinking first thing in the morning.

Well that was fast

It's amazing how fast this one has ramped up.

Wait...what? That was fast.