Nah-ah, nope, no.. I'm still in New Orleans and I'm waiting for power at my house in Florida to go back home. I do not want to leave again!!
West coast should have power by the 22nd, East coast of Florida should be restored by the end of this weekend (9/17). We got ours back last night. Safe travels on your way home!
Thank you. I'm on the West coast. My neighbor went home two days ago (he owns a generator) he said they haven't even gotten to our town yet alone our street. He thinks it'll be another week or so before we get power. I might stay a bit longer and see what this storm does. No sense in going all the way back if i have to leave again around the 27th.
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2017 19:10:29 GMT -6 by jjc0320
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 19:47:25 GMT -6
Yes, no one is in the clear for this one. If there is ridging in the northeastern U.S. any tropical activity would be steered west...whether that be into Florida and Gulf or somewhere else along the east coast is up in the air.
But just about all 18z ensemble members are pointing toward tropical activity in the Bahamas before they split off.
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2017 19:47:38 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by parrotfish on Sept 14, 2017 20:55:51 GMT -6
Well, you implied that because an area was in the "bullseye" of a projected storm this early on that there was very little chance it would hit there. I would think that there's a good deal of evidence against that--but I'm not a forecaster.
For Irma, the majority of the model runs from both Euro/GFS in the 10 day window put a storm in S. Fla where it ended up.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 20:58:06 GMT -6
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
As a refresher, the GFS runs took Irma out to sea, then to Boston, then to New York, then to Philadelphia, then to Virginia Beach, then to Myrtle Beach, then to Savannah, GA, then to Jacksonville, then to Miami, then eventually settled upon the basic track that Irma actually took.
Allow me enough guesses throughout the season, and even I can (eventually) forecast the Saints' final W-L correctly.
While the Euro performed rather admirably, IMHO right now the models are brain candy for those of us who are weathergeeks; not much more than that, though.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
