Nah-ah, nope, no.. I'm still in New Orleans and I'm waiting for power at my house in Florida to go back home. I do not want to leave again!!
West coast should have power by the 22nd, East coast of Florida should be restored by the end of this weekend (9/17). We got ours back last night. Safe travels on your way home!
Thank you. I'm on the West coast. My neighbor went home two days ago (he owns a generator) he said they haven't even gotten to our town yet alone our street. He thinks it'll be another week or so before we get power. I might stay a bit longer and see what this storm does. No sense in going all the way back if i have to leave again around the 27th.
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2017 19:10:29 GMT -6 by jjc0320
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 19:32:21 GMT -6
That's 96L that moves into Florida....yes, very troublesome pattern for the southeast U.S. on that run with 591dm ridging across the northeastern U.S.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 19:47:25 GMT -6
Yes, no one is in the clear for this one. If there is ridging in the northeastern U.S. any tropical activity would be steered west...whether that be into Florida and Gulf or somewhere else along the east coast is up in the air.
But just about all 18z ensemble members are pointing toward tropical activity in the Bahamas before they split off.
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2017 19:47:38 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by parrotfish on Sept 14, 2017 20:55:51 GMT -6
Well, you implied that because an area was in the "bullseye" of a projected storm this early on that there was very little chance it would hit there. I would think that there's a good deal of evidence against that--but I'm not a forecaster.
For Irma, the majority of the model runs from both Euro/GFS in the 10 day window put a storm in S. Fla where it ended up.
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 20:58:06 GMT -6
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2017 20:59:57 GMT -6
TD 14 should become Lee tomorrow. That means 96L will be Maria down the road.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
I believe they were just referring to something we used to say here....the best place to be in the long range is right in the bullseye because the forecast will likely change.
As a refresher, the GFS runs took Irma out to sea, then to Boston, then to New York, then to Philadelphia, then to Virginia Beach, then to Myrtle Beach, then to Savannah, GA, then to Jacksonville, then to Miami, then eventually settled upon the basic track that Irma actually took.
Allow me enough guesses throughout the season, and even I can (eventually) forecast the Saints' final W-L correctly.
While the Euro performed rather admirably, IMHO right now the models are brain candy for those of us who are weathergeeks; not much more than that, though.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
