Post by Wildish on Oct 26, 2017 15:17:57 GMT -6
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms may impact parts of far southeast
Louisiana, southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama Friday
evening into the overnight.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the southern and central
Plains on Friday as a cold front advances southeastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley. Post-frontal convection will likely
develop just behind the front Friday afternoon from southeast Texas
northeastward into northwest Mississippi. As low-level flow
increases ahead of the front Friday evening, other storms will
likely develop from southeast Louisiana northeastward into southern
Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. This latter activity looks to
have a decent chance to become surface-based. Forecast soundings for
Mobile at 0600Z/Saturday show MLCAPE values generally from 200 to
500 J/kg with 45 to 50 kt of 0-6 Km Shear. This along with a moist
boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F) may be enough
for a few strong wind gusts or a minimal tornado threat with cells
that rotate. The weak instability should be a limiting factor and
nothing more than a marginal severe threat is expected.
..Broyles.. 10/26/2017
