Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 7, 2018 7:36:53 GMT -6
Marginal Risk for the entire area today:
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this afternoon
through early evening across parts of central/east Texas to the Gulf
Coast States.
...Central/East Texas to Gulf Coast States...
Clusters of weakly organized storms are ongoing and spreading
eastward across the ArkLaMiss region early this morning. To the
east/southeast of this activity, gradual low-level moistening and
destabilization will occur in vicinity of a northward-shifting front
across the Gulf Coast States including LA into southern portions of
MS/AL/GA. Scattered surface-based thunderstorms should become
increasingly common this afternoon near and south of this
west/east-oriented front. Given that a relatively strong belt of
cyclonic flow aloft will largely coincide with the frontal zone,
scattered semi-organized storms can be expected along with at least
some severe risk amidst MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Locally
damaging winds will be the primary hazard with the strongest storms
this afternoon through early evening.
Farther to the west, a front will progress south-southeastward
across central/east TX into LA. While large-scale forcing for ascent
will be meager across TX/LA, forecast soundings suggest modest
boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the front, especially
from south-central into southeast TX. Forecast soundings suggest
convective temperatures will be breached by 20-21Z across
south-central/southeast TX. While forcing will be weak across the
warm sector, it appears isolated to widely scattered storms may
develop along the wind shift and perhaps loosely organize as the
front advances south. Strong thunderstorm winds and marginally
severe hail will be possible with this activity.
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this afternoon
through early evening across parts of central/east Texas to the Gulf
Coast States.
...Central/East Texas to Gulf Coast States...
Clusters of weakly organized storms are ongoing and spreading
eastward across the ArkLaMiss region early this morning. To the
east/southeast of this activity, gradual low-level moistening and
destabilization will occur in vicinity of a northward-shifting front
across the Gulf Coast States including LA into southern portions of
MS/AL/GA. Scattered surface-based thunderstorms should become
increasingly common this afternoon near and south of this
west/east-oriented front. Given that a relatively strong belt of
cyclonic flow aloft will largely coincide with the frontal zone,
scattered semi-organized storms can be expected along with at least
some severe risk amidst MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Locally
damaging winds will be the primary hazard with the strongest storms
this afternoon through early evening.
Farther to the west, a front will progress south-southeastward
across central/east TX into LA. While large-scale forcing for ascent
will be meager across TX/LA, forecast soundings suggest modest
boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the front, especially
from south-central into southeast TX. Forecast soundings suggest
convective temperatures will be breached by 20-21Z across
south-central/southeast TX. While forcing will be weak across the
warm sector, it appears isolated to widely scattered storms may
develop along the wind shift and perhaps loosely organize as the
front advances south. Strong thunderstorm winds and marginally
severe hail will be possible with this activity.
