Tropical Depression Gordon

allicat1214 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,926	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 10:28:14 GMT -6 Mike T.- Chackbay,La, courtney0726, and 5 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 10:28:14 GMT -6 A little tropical humor before things get serious when we get a storm in the gulf. Tee hee! "Spidey-web of Ambiguity"
	Last Edit: Sept 2, 2018 10:29:18 GMT -6 by allicat1214 I like big levees and I cannot lie.

SKYSUMMIT
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Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 10:35:19 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 2, 2018 10:35:19 GMT -6

1133 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A coastal flood advisory is in effect through tonight for areas
along the coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay
St. Louis, and along the lakeshore areas of Lakes Pontchartrain
and Maurepas. Minor inundation is possible across low lying areas
outside levees during high tide.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
are expected. The heavier and more persistent rainfall could lead
to ponding and some flooding of streets and low lying, poorly
drained areas. Stronger thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds 30 to
35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A tropical depression or tropical storm could impact the region by
late Tuesday into Wednesday. The degree of impacts will depend on
the exact timing, strength and track of the system, however it is
expected that very heavy rainfall will lead to a risk of flash
flooding across much of the region by late Tuesday and continuing
through Wednesday night or Thursday. Strong winds over 40 mph, at
least in gusts, are also possible with bands of heavy rain and
thunderstorms. Tides are expected to continue building, and
coastal flooding will be possible near the coast and tidal lakes.

Wave conditions are likely to become hazardous for small craft
across the coastal waters and tidal lakes due to stronger winds
and periods of thunderstorms. In addition, tropical funnel clouds
and waterspouts will be possible across the marine environment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through Monday, but may be
requested Tuesday through Thursday.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

NavyMom: WBR Parish
Moderator

Posts: 1,571

Staff Member

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:02:50 GMT -6

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Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Sept 2, 2018 11:02:50 GMT -6

From Bob Breck...
Saturday, September 1, 2018

Special Midday Update...

Normally I don’t start doing frequent updates until we have something to follow…and RIGHT NOW we have nothing to follow. However, almost every model run this morning is latching on to the wave approaching the Bahamas and bringing it into the Gulf for late Monday through Wednesday of next week. One takes it to south Texas while several bring it towards the mouth of the River. Regardless, this is a holiday weekend and many folks will be returning home late Monday to discover they might be dealing with Tropical Storm conditions for Tuesday & Wednesday. Hear this clearly. I am NOT saying positively that Gordon is coming to NOLA next week. What I am saying is (based on the latest computer models) we need to pay close attention to the weather on Sunday in case we have to quickly prepare for a storm on Tuesday. Many stores will not be open on Monday (Labor Day) so I suggest you grocery shop today or tomorrow for the usual essentials (milk, bread, water). This will not be a major hurricane, but it could become a strong tropical storm bringing us lots of rain and enough wind to cause power outages. Again, nothing is there yet and tomorrow’s model runs could be totally different. This update is to just alert you and your friends to the POTENTIAL for tropical development in the Gulf next week. NHC upped their probabilities from 20% to 40% this morning. Let’s just pay attention as the situation evolves. My next update will be tonight as usual, unless new information becomes available. Stay tuned! And share with a friend. Bob Breck

It seems like he usually tries to shy away from these events but not with this one.

“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”

Ambient Weather:
ambientweather.net/dashboard/29355f8f3f87e2a4ec7ccc562ab0f3cf

WU:
www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:04:04 GMT -6 T-man, Bayou Medic, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 2, 2018 11:04:04 GMT -6 Not 91L...current radar/satellite composite:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,547 Staff Member	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:17:34 GMT -6 T-man, Bayou Medic, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 11:17:34 GMT -6 UKMET into Barataria Bay, tropical storm. Then turns west once inland and ends up near Houston in about 6 days. Lots of RAIN!
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Cheshire Cat
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 900

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:25:55 GMT -6 via mobile T-man and Stacie-Lumberton, MS like this

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Post by Cheshire Cat on Sept 2, 2018 11:25:55 GMT -6

Sept 2, 2018 11:17:34 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

UKMET into Barataria Bay, tropical storm.

Then turns west once inland and ends up near Houston in about 6 days. Lots of RAIN!

Taking 6 days to Houston?! Dat's too slow. :-O

T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,707	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:29:34 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Sept 2, 2018 11:29:34 GMT -6 The TWO will be interesting, it is looking more and more like a TC to my untrained eyes.

crashtestdummy
Category 3

Posts: 646
Location: Pearland, Texas

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:30:21 GMT -6 flora... Covington, near CHS and heatherweather like this

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Post by crashtestdummy on Sept 2, 2018 11:30:21 GMT -6

Sept 2, 2018 11:17:34 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

UKMET into Barataria Bay, tropical storm.

Then turns west once inland and ends up near Houston in about 6 days. Lots of RAIN!

Well, we can only hope that's wrong. We _just_ got the house put back together from Harvey. There are folks still not back home. We don't need Harvey2!!

"You can learn a lot from a dummy."

Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

allicat1214
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,926

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:44:32 GMT -6

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Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 11:44:32 GMT -6

UGLY. From Dr. Jeff Master's discussion: Heavy rain is biggest threat for northern gulf coast.

A heavy rain threat for the Gulf Coast

The 91L system is expected to continue on a west-northwesterly track through Wednesday, which would bring it ashore along the coast between Alabama and Louisiana on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This does not give the system much time for intensification, and it is unlikely that 91L will become Hurricane Gordon. None of the ensemble members of the 0Z Sunday runs of the European and GFS models predicted that 91L would attain sustained winds in excess of 45 mph before landfall, and wind is not the main threat of this system—heavy rain is. The latest rainfall guidance from the National Weather Service predicts that 91L will bring widespread rainfall amounts of 5" to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The coast along the Texas/Louisiana border is already experiencing heavy rains due to a separate weather system; some areas had already gotten 3" of rain by Sunday afternoon, according to the NWS in Lake Charles. From the NWS in Houston: "Our local flash flood decision tree is indicating a high risk of flash flooding with maximum rainfall totals by Monday evening between 8-10 inches. What is worrisome is that the TT WRF is showing a boundary and training cells over Galveston/Brazoria and southern Harris counties Monday morning (09-18z). A Flash Flood Watch will be required tonight and Monday for a large part of SE TX."

Last Edit: Sept 2, 2018 11:46:49 GMT -6 by allicat1214

I like big levees and I cannot lie.

kerry04
Category 1

Posts: 105

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:47:30 GMT -6 via mobile Bayou Medic and Stacie-Lumberton, MS like this

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Post by kerry04 on Sept 2, 2018 11:47:30 GMT -6

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Bayou Medic Moderator Board Member Posts: 1,345 Staff Member	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:50:30 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Bayou Medic on Sept 2, 2018 11:50:30 GMT -6 The island under the "cluster" of Invest 91L is Duncan Town, on Ragged Island. Current sustained winds are at 20 MPH.
	GCWX Board Member Spotter Network Trained Emergency Medical Technician 911 Emergency Operator

allicat1214
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,926

Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:51:51 GMT -6 T-man, chloe06, and 1 more like this

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Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 11:51:51 GMT -6

Here's Breck from today (RNJ's post above is Breck's post from yesterday)

Bob Breck WVUE
1 hr ·
Sunday, September 2, 2018

Louisiana Is the Bulleye...Midday Update

Radar loops are showing a weak low level circulation moving inland near Cameron southeast of Lake Charles. This is producing a large rain shield with us on the far eastern edge. Look for several rounds of tropical downpours this afternoon as this system moves farther to the north.

Our next challenge will be the tropical wave between Cuba and Nassau. Current satellite loops are indicating an organizing system (NHC designated it Invest 91L) that could become a depression as soon as this afternoon. All of the morning model runs bring whatever forms right towards Louisiana with the main impacts arriving Tuesday PM into Wednesday midday. The worst case scenario would be a low end hurricane (slim chance) with the best case being little development (slim chance) and just a tropical wave. In between, the more likely probabilities are a strong tropical depression or a moderate tropical storm. Any of the above will bring lots of heavy rainfall on grounds that are already saturated. 2-3”+ is very likely with 8-12” a remote possibility. This will NOT be a major hurricane, but it could be a quick developer once it reaches the Gulf on Monday. Our rebuilt levees will be able to handle this system, however, we’re likely to see power outages, especially if winds get above 50-60 mph and coastal flooding. Labor Day is a holiday for many, but I checked with my supermarket (Rouses) and they will be open. RIGHT NOW, it appears schools will NOT reopen on Tuesday IF we are under Tropical Storm/Hurricane warnings. Monday will be a drier day before conditions go downhill by Midday on Tuesday. NHC might even come out with their new “Potential Tropical Cyclone” statement this afternoon. You should use today & tomorrow to get any supplies needed to carry your family through several days of not being able to get to the stores. I’ll update later today as we still don’t have anything to track except a growing cluster of storms SE of Miami heading towards the SE Gulf. NHC has a full team of aircraft scheduled to investigate this system beginning Monday morning. Stay tuned! Bob Breck

I like big levees and I cannot lie.

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,547 Staff Member	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 11:58:58 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, Mike T.- Chackbay,La, and 8 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 11:58:58 GMT -6 A Tropical Storm Watch is coming either tonight or first thing tomorrow.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

courtney0726 Category 1 Posts: 194	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 12:03:55 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by courtney0726 on Sept 2, 2018 12:03:55 GMT -6 To be sure.. there is no official track out yet, correct? I’m already seeing tracks with cones of error for this storm on Facebook, and I don’t think they are official.
	Last Edit: Sept 2, 2018 12:05:58 GMT -6 by courtney0726

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,547 Staff Member	Tropical Depression Gordon Sept 2, 2018 12:07:17 GMT -6 Bayou Medic, Jess23, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 12:07:17 GMT -6 EURO crosses Grand Isle heading NW. Looks like a Tropical Storm.
	Last Edit: Sept 2, 2018 12:08:17 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Tropical Depression Gordon

Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 10:28:14 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 2, 2018 10:35:19 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Sept 2, 2018 11:02:50 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 2, 2018 11:04:04 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 11:17:34 GMT -6

Post by Cheshire Cat on Sept 2, 2018 11:25:55 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Sept 2, 2018 11:29:34 GMT -6

Post by crashtestdummy on Sept 2, 2018 11:30:21 GMT -6

Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 11:44:32 GMT -6

Post by kerry04 on Sept 2, 2018 11:47:30 GMT -6

Post by Bayou Medic on Sept 2, 2018 11:50:30 GMT -6

Post by allicat1214 on Sept 2, 2018 11:51:51 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 11:58:58 GMT -6

Post by courtney0726 on Sept 2, 2018 12:03:55 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 2, 2018 12:07:17 GMT -6

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