HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

cajungal
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 9:52:44 GMT -6 via mobile thibodauxwx likes this

Quote

Post by cajungal on Jul 9, 2019 9:52:44 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 9:47:34 GMT -6 thibodauxwx said:

I was taking to someone from the city a few minutes ago, and showing him what was going on, He tells me they were briefed last night and were not going to get much more then 1 to 3 inches of rain in The Thibodaux area. I told him it's time for an update.

If it goes in around Morgan city, then we will get a lot. If it goes towards New Orleans, then we won't get much in Thibodaux. Allison we got dumped and a lot of flooding

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 9:53:35 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 9:53:35 GMT -6 Get ready guys. Models are all coming into agreement for the most part now. Looks like southern Louisiana will get something.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 9:58:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 9, 2019 9:58:09 GMT -6 LOL...yea, disregard what I said about the GFS. I actually does develop the storm on this run and looks like it may go inland around southwest Louisiana as a border line hurricane.
	Last Edit: Jul 9, 2019 9:58:46 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 9:58:54 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 9:58:54 GMT -6 My absolute focus now. Exactly how far south does this emergence off Panama City go and will it be the center. The difference of 50 or so miles offshore is critical.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:00:06 GMT -6 via mobile thibodauxwx, pnuts, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 10:00:06 GMT -6 Mass hysteria sets in today. Store shelves are empty by tomorrow.

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:03:40 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 10:03:40 GMT -6 Yes we did, it was bad here in Thibodaux, spent a lot of hours pumping water out of the transmitter building.and putting out sand bags.

ndg
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:09:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by ndg on Jul 9, 2019 10:09:37 GMT -6

12z UKMET, much stronger, also shifted west very close to the 12z GFS track.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

hurricaner
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:10:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Jul 9, 2019 10:10:47 GMT -6

After looking at the latest run of the GFS I see why it is strengthening now in this run the 200mb high is closer to the LLC causing much northerly shear. However I am not sure why the storm takes a turn to NW when off the south central cost of LA. The upper level shortwave has bypassed the system to the NE and there is 500mb ridging north and NW of the system and the steering flow is more westerly. Given that steering it would appear to more westerly then the GFS is showing.

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SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -6 thibodauxwx likes this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 9, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 10:09:37 GMT -6 ndg said:

12z UKMET, much stronger, also shifted west very close to the 12z GFS track.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

GOOD GOD....talk about rapid intensification!

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

ndg
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:19:05 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Quote

Post by ndg on Jul 9, 2019 10:19:05 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 10:10:47 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

After looking at the latest run of the GFS I see why it is strengthening now in this run the 200mb high is closer to the LLC causing much northerly shear. However I am not sure why the storm takes a turn to NW when off the south central cost of LA. The upper level shortwave has bypassed the system to the NE and there is 500mb ridging north and NW of the system and the steering flow is more westerly. Given that steering it would appear to more westerly then the GFS is showing.

The Euro shows the same thing.
If you notice, the mid level ridge to the NW of it centered over NM & CO it stays in place never getting to the north of the system which would had continued pushing it westward towards TX. At the same time it shows rising heights by the weekend across the eastern US after the shortwave passes by thus creating a weakness to its north.

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:21:34 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 10:21:34 GMT -6 it's going to pull a Michael? as far as intensification if that holds true.

TalonII Category 2 Posts: 419	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:22:10 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by TalonII on Jul 9, 2019 10:22:10 GMT -6 Well that would not be ideal...
	PWS - www.wunderground.com/weather/us/la/iowa/KLAIOWA11

harpman - old GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,449	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:27:16 GMT -6 via mobile Dutar76, Stacie-Lumberton, MS, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman - old on Jul 9, 2019 10:27:16 GMT -6 I just want this thing outa here by Saturday so grisairgasm and I can do our gig!!
	Blowin' harp!

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:28:37 GMT -6 harpman - old likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 10:28:37 GMT -6 Audrey June 25th or so. Cat 4. Came out of the southern gulf as do most of the majors. This is quite a different setup. I never say never much any more. And Michael... hmmmmm

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 10:31:00 GMT -6 via mobile Nola Mike and TalonII like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 10:31:00 GMT -6 This is all PJ’s fault.

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Post by cajungal on Jul 9, 2019 9:52:44 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 9:53:35 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 9, 2019 9:58:09 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 9:58:54 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 10:00:06 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 10:03:40 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 9, 2019 10:09:37 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 9, 2019 10:10:47 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 9, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 9, 2019 10:19:05 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 10:21:34 GMT -6

Post by TalonII on Jul 9, 2019 10:22:10 GMT -6

Post by harpman - old on Jul 9, 2019 10:27:16 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 10:28:37 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Jul 9, 2019 10:31:00 GMT -6

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