HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

brees
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:09:31 GMT -6 via mobile Saltmama~Montegut , Louisiana, Stacie-Lumberton, MS, and 1 more like this

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Post by brees on Jul 10, 2019 10:09:31 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:03:35 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Close up look at the 12z GFS bringing the eye of future Hurricane Barry inland between Houma and Morgan City Saturday morning:

i.ibb.co/XFpcYTT/2019-07-10-11-01-22-GREarth.png

Not good for any locations under and to the east, for sure.

The Mississippi river concern is real. When the COE says this is an unprecedented occurrence and they have no real response to how to be proactive about a rising river, particularly a river above flood stage and is forecast to be equal to the lowest height of some of the levee areas, that is really worrisome.

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:15:51 GMT -6 lsurebel and Saltmama~Montegut , Louisiana like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:15:51 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:09:02 GMT -6 lsurebel said:

any of the model runs contain hurricane hunter info? When is/was the first flight?

Not yet. Tonight's 00z runs should contain the data. Their flight is scheduled for 1pm today.

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grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 10, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6 That 12z GFS will cause the river to go ape s**t. The gulf at the mouth....8ft, 10, 12? . This isn’t hype gang. Who really knows with such potential fast dynamics.

whitecap GCWX Supporter Posts: 598	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:21:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by whitecap on Jul 10, 2019 10:21:06 GMT -6 Could it be high enough to topple the levees in Jefferson/Orleans Parishes?

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:22:50 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Jul 10, 2019 10:22:50 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:23:11 GMT -6 saetyl likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:23:11 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:21:06 GMT -6 whitecap said:

Could it be high enough to topple the levees in Jefferson/Orleans Parishes?

Unprecedented territory....river forecast to crest at 20 feet. Lowest levee protection point in New Orleans is 20 feet (anyone know where that lowest location is?). AND the hydrolic prediction center has been historically conservative in river forecast levels. Not trying to scare anyone but it's just that honestly, no one knows...not even the most professional.

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southlaag
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:23:46 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by southlaag on Jul 10, 2019 10:23:46 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 9:59:29 GMT -6 justin said:

Ukmet continues to be furthest west and stronger.

In my uneducated opinion the Uk has more of a chance of being right than the current gfs with where the Coc looks like it will be on satellite

I don’t see how this storm come ashore further east than vermillion bay

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:24:15 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE', Dutar76, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:24:15 GMT -6 12z CAnadian went west to near Beaumont. So the pendulum continues. Man we need data!
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tobiaslab
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:24:38 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by tobiaslab on Jul 10, 2019 10:24:38 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

That 12z GFS will cause the river to go ape s**t. The gulf at the mouth....8ft, 10, 12?

. This isn’t hype gang. Who really knows with such potential fast dynamics.

its even more worrying that it seems not a lot of people are preparing. and we are what 48 hours out? lets hope and pray it wont be as bad as we think but with the models in agreement as they have been and what currently happening in NO. i dont have a good feeling

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:27:23 GMT -6 nolasim and nancyann like this

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Post by grisairgasm on Jul 10, 2019 10:27:23 GMT -6

I simply have no idea riverwise what the final ramifications would be. Yet we can go to the moon. The human condition is quite the ride at times. The US is the most natural disaster prone region in the world. Including tsunami and Vulcan activity.

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:28:25 GMT -6

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Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:28:25 GMT -6

Not liking that last GFS run putting landfall of a Cat 1/2 near Houma/Morgan City. Because I'm in Reserve, that would put me in the NE eye wall and give me worse weather than during those famous storms. The status of the river gives me even greater concern.

I also don't like the new Canadian either, because I have family in the Beaumont area!

Still waiting for the new data to be put into the forecast models, though, and tomorrow I will hopefully know enough as to whether to try to make a move with an elderly individual and a pet.

Last Edit: Jul 10, 2019 10:28:59 GMT -6 by sjbpgal-St. John Parish

whitecap
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:29:42 GMT -6

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Post by whitecap on Jul 10, 2019 10:29:42 GMT -6

Very scary indeed to think of - I live close to the levee in River Ridge and daughters just as close in Old Jefferson. Will this possibility provoke the Corps of Engineers to dynamite levees in less populated areas or open spillway or whatever? I know in Hurricane Betsy this method was used in the lower 9th ward area - frightening thought.

brees
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:34:02 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by brees on Jul 10, 2019 10:34:02 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:29:42 GMT -6 whitecap said:

Very scary indeed to think of - I live close to the levee in River Ridge and daughters just as close in Old Jefferson. Will this possibility provoke the Corps of Engineers to dynamite levees in less populated areas or open spillway or whatever? I know in Hurricane Betsy this method was used in the lower 9th ward area - frightening thought.

What adds more complexity, is this system is expected to meander about 48hrs south of the mouth of the river.

sjbpgal-St. John Parish Category 4 Posts: 894	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:35:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:35:06 GMT -6 Since it's the middle of July, there really is nothing to steer this thing. No big fronts or troughs to come and pick it up.

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 10:40:39 GMT -6

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Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:40:39 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 10:24:38 GMT -6 tobiaslab said:

Jul 10, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

That 12z GFS will cause the river to go ape s**t. The gulf at the mouth....8ft, 10, 12?

. This isn’t hype gang. Who really knows with such potential fast dynamics.

its even more worrying that it seems not a lot of people are preparing. and we are what 48 hours out? lets hope and pray it wont be as bad as we think but with the models in agreement as they have been and what currently happening in NO. i dont have a good feeling

I agree. So many people in my area were caught completely off guard and don't even know.

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Post by brees on Jul 10, 2019 10:09:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:15:51 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 10, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6

Post by whitecap on Jul 10, 2019 10:21:06 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jul 10, 2019 10:22:50 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:23:11 GMT -6

Post by southlaag on Jul 10, 2019 10:23:46 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 10:24:15 GMT -6

Post by tobiaslab on Jul 10, 2019 10:24:38 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 10, 2019 10:27:23 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:28:25 GMT -6

Post by whitecap on Jul 10, 2019 10:29:42 GMT -6

Post by brees on Jul 10, 2019 10:34:02 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:35:06 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jul 10, 2019 10:40:39 GMT -6

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