HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:48:14 GMT -6 Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 10, 2019 13:48:14 GMT -6 18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:49:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 13:49:36 GMT -6

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
245 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Terrebonne Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 244 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Chauvin, or 9
miles southeast of Houma, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Houma, Dulac, Montegut and Chauvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 9061 2943 9049 2921 9076 2943 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 054DEG 18KT 2947 9062

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

Last Edit: Jul 10, 2019 13:49:59 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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southernchelle GCWX Supporter Posts: 189 Location: Patterson, La	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by southernchelle on Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6 Jul 10, 2019 13:42:59 GMT -6 HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN said: The rain accumulation, as portrayed by the 12z Euro, as of mid-morning, Sunday. :shock: Is that 23" or 28"?!

suncindy2 GCWX Supporter Posts: 391	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:54:41 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT and flora... Covington, near CHS like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by suncindy2 on Jul 10, 2019 13:54:41 GMT -6 Thundering in Ponchatoula now
	PONCHATOULA, LA

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:54:47 GMT -6 Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this

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Post by laurahawkins on Jul 10, 2019 13:54:47 GMT -6

If this ends up being correct it would mean New Orleans already met these totals. Seems unlikely that we won't get anything more.

Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6 southernchelle said:

Jul 10, 2019 13:42:59 GMT -6 HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN said:

The rain accumulation, as portrayed by the 12z Euro, as of mid-morning, Sunday.

Is that 23" or 28"?!

teemickey GCWX Supporter Posts: 160	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -6 Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by teemickey on Jul 10, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -6 If the track shifts to the right: Would that be worst case for NOLA?
	I'm a wife, mom of 2 and Grammie of 6!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 13:58:16 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 13:58:16 GMT -6 Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6 southernchelle said: :shock: Is that 23" or 28"?! That's 28.7 inches. The EURO has been extremely consistent with its near 30" of rain
	Last Edit: Jul 10, 2019 13:58:33 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:00:25 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this

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Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:00:25 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -6 teemickey said:

If the track shifts to the right: Would that be worst case for NOLA?

Yeah, pretty much. The positive news, I suppose, is that once it is formed, it won't have a great deal of time to strengthen, although at that point conditions will be very favorable. Models and NHC for the moment are going for a Cat 1 hurricane (barely a Cat 1) at landfall.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:01:09 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 10, 2019 14:01:09 GMT -6 Now around 90% of Euro's ensemble members show a LA landfall, only 4 out of 50 agree with the UKMET and CMC.

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:01:50 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this

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Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:01:50 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 12:31:18 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Jul 10, 2019 12:20:24 GMT -6 harpman - old said:

Is this gonna even be declared a depression?

Personally I do not believe it will. I think we still have 12 to 24 hours before we see it come together. The longer it takes the better.

Scott, by this comment I'm guessing you mean that it will go straight to a TS? Or that it won't be anything at all? I'm sure you meant the former and not the latter, but I want to clarify.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:03:00 GMT -6 ndg and Jess23 like this

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Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:03:00 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 14:01:09 GMT -6 ndg said:

Now around 90% of Euro's ensemble members show a LA landfall, only 4 out of 50 agree with the UKMET and CMC.

I'm not surprised. Both ICON and GFS were sticking to their guns.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:07:40 GMT -6 nolasim and Jess23 like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 14:07:40 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 14:01:50 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jul 10, 2019 12:31:18 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Personally I do not believe it will. I think we still have 12 to 24 hours before we see it come together. The longer it takes the better.

Scott, by this comment I'm guessing you mean that it will go straight to a TS? Or that it won't be anything at all? I'm sure you meant the former and not the latter, but I want to clarify.

I was referring to us having 12 - 24 hours since that post before we were able to see a defined LLC. Seems like recon has found a couple low level vorticies but I haven't seen a VDM come out unless I missed it (haven't been watching the data closely). But yea, I think this will go straight to TS Barry once closed because we should see an increase in convection later tonight into the morning.

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:09:39 GMT -6 Jess23 and Stacie-Lumberton, MS like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 14:09:39 GMT -6

Upper level conditions continue to improve for PTC 2 and it's almost directly under neat an upper level anticyclone. Still not sure what a couple of the TV mets were referring to yesterday talking about how there was a lot of shear in the gulf.

i.ibb.co/m6MGSXm/2019-07-10-15-11-07-wg8shr-GIF-900-680.png

Last Edit: Jul 10, 2019 14:12:35 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:11:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by teemickey on Jul 10, 2019 14:11:17 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 14:00:25 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jul 10, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -6 teemickey said:

If the track shifts to the right: Would that be worst case for NOLA?

Yeah, pretty much. The positive news, I suppose, is that once it is formed, it won't have a great deal of time to strengthen, although at that point conditions will be very favorable. Models and NHC for the moment are going for a Cat 1 hurricane (barely a Cat 1) at landfall.

😳🙁

I'm a wife, mom of 2 and Grammie of 6!

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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 10, 2019 14:13:13 GMT -6 via mobile Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Jul 10, 2019 14:13:13 GMT -6

Jul 10, 2019 13:54:47 GMT -6 laurahawkins said:

If this ends up being correct it would mean New Orleans already met these totals. Seems unlikely that we won't get anything more.

Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6 southernchelle said:

Is that 23" or 28"?!

I think these rainfall estimates probably didn't include this mornings rains.... these are loosely associated with the low that will eventually become tropical

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Post by ndg on Jul 10, 2019 13:48:14 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 13:49:36 GMT -6

Post by southernchelle on Jul 10, 2019 13:51:15 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Jul 10, 2019 13:54:41 GMT -6

Post by laurahawkins on Jul 10, 2019 13:54:47 GMT -6

Post by teemickey on Jul 10, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 13:58:16 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:00:25 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 10, 2019 14:01:09 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:01:50 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 10, 2019 14:03:00 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 14:07:40 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 10, 2019 14:09:39 GMT -6

Post by teemickey on Jul 10, 2019 14:11:17 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Jul 10, 2019 14:13:13 GMT -6

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