Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Hey everyone! Forum is buzzing! Lots of model watching yet to come with this one, as the steering pattern still has many question marks as we head towards the weekend. Latest 0Z GFS Ensembles actually shifted westward(despite the operation run going taking Dorian towards the Carolinas). Likely that models will continue to flip flop over the coming days.

Keys looks to be 1) strength and placement of the Bermuda Ridge to the north of Dorian 2) influence of Dorian with upper level low in the Bahamas 3) speed of Dorian(slower= further west), quicker = further north) 4) Any dip in the jet stream over the Midwest to pick Dorian up & steer it more north

At this point, all folks from the Gulf Coast to Florida to the Mid Atlantic should have a wary eye on Dorian...as wherever the system decides to trek, it could easily be stronger than the latest hurricane center forecast...as they noted in tonight’s update. Stay tuned!

With Barry, the same thing was taking place, the GFS models were a big outlier and then with I think about 3 days of when Barry actually made landfall it all of a sudden jumped on board with the Icon and Euro. Based en that, I would think that is more likely here. GFS will eventually shift and we are looking at this one getting into the Gulf. From there, right now I’ll trust the models and hope it stays East of southeast La. No reason to believe otherwise right now, these models have become much more reliable but will just keep watching for any changes.

Good morning, all.

06z GFS, same premise as the 00zGFS, except a bit slower in pace, and crawls along the coast a bit more inland, before turning out to sea.
Saturday morning to the next Friday morning.

We have tropical storm Erin this morning off the east coast

WTNT45 KNHC 280848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Wow cant believe the uncertainty. Will be an interesting couple of days.