Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

The ensembles are a bunch of different runs. Look above an you see some going into gulf and some close to operational model

Hurricane Dora in 1964 was estimated to be a Cat 3 at landfall but max winds observed on land were Cat 2. The impact was major from St Augustine to north of Jacksonville. Destroying a once pretty popular vacation spot at the Jacksonville Beaches. Never really recovered. 

I lived in Jax Beach for a while and they had a sign near the beach that said a Category 5 storm surge would be this high. And it was basically about as high as a two story building. Sitting in my little Honda Civic at the time it was terrifying. 

Right.  I meant the 12z run which showed the ensembles in the gulf over La/MS.  I see what you're saying about 18z ensembles and run.  

693
URNT12 KNHC 290001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 28/23:37:20Z
B. 19.12 deg N 065.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 3022 m
D. 992 mb
E. 150 deg 27 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 46 kt
I. 214 deg 6 nm 23:31:00Z
J. 316 deg 46 kt
K. 214 deg 6 nm 23:31:00Z
L. 71 kt
M. 083 deg 3 nm 23:38:30Z
N. 146 deg 76 kt
O. 046 deg 6 nm 23:39:30Z
P. 9 C / 3055 m
Q. 15 C / 3045 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1205A DORIAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 046 / 6 NM 23:39:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 288 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR


According to recon the eye wall is now CLOSED.

18Z Rapid EURO, noon Friday