Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

N5RTF
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 9:49:46 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ and fishfan4938 like this

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Post by N5RTF on Aug 29, 2019 9:49:46 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 9:18:56 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Aug 29, 2019 9:14:40 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Thanks so much! And the farther south it enters Florida, the better chances for a possible second landfall here, right? Just trying to understand all the scenarios.

Not really. It just means it will travel that much further along the Florida coast. Once it feels that weakness in the ridge, it's heading north. While we want no one to feel Dorian's wrath, the further north it makes landfall on the eastern side the fewer the amount of people to feel effects on its western side. Hope that makes sense.

Maps can be deceiving. I always try to remember that the term "landfall" in Florida (like in southern Louisiana) is an oxymoron. Britton Hill, the highest point in the entire state, is only 345 feet above sea level, on the Alabama border. Almost all of Florida is a steamy swamp, with nearly nothing to slow down a hurricane.

grisairgasm
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 9:54:16 GMT -6

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Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 9:54:16 GMT -6

I’ve noticed this since i was a kid. If you look at the satellite of Dorian and then all around, you notice there is no competing energy. Just the remnant / Erin trough. In simple terms, the energy is all his. Common to see this with majors....isolation.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 9:58:17 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat, lightningstruck-Bogalusa, and 3 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 9:58:17 GMT -6 I drew in the steering from the 12z ICON to show its forecast: i.ibb.co/zJgNZjQ/2019-08-29-10-48-25-icon-z500-vort-us-45-png-1024-696.png
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nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:02:01 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:02:01 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 9:49:46 GMT -6 N5RTF said:

Aug 29, 2019 9:18:56 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Not really. It just means it will travel that much further along the Florida coast. Once it feels that weakness in the ridge, it's heading north. While we want no one to feel Dorian's wrath, the further north it makes landfall on the eastern side the fewer the amount of people to feel effects on its western side. Hope that makes sense.

Maps can be deceiving. I always try to remember that the term "landfall" in Florida (like in southern Louisiana) is an oxymoron. Britton Hill, the highest point in the entire state, is only 345 feet above sea level, on the Alabama border. Almost all of Florida is a steamy swamp, with nearly nothing to slow down a hurricane.

I was going by the projected mbs as stated on the model at that point. You are correct of course, but remember a storm needs those waters to feed it regardless of the topography of the land. Truthfully, I've only been to the Panhandle, so I can't comment on the "steamy swamp" reference.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:03:34 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:03:34 GMT -6 Meanwhile, the GFS makes landfall just below Mickey Land I believe as a 115 mph hurricane.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:07:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Aug 29, 2019 10:07:09 GMT -6 UKMET in gom
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

chopin - River Ridge
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:10:58 GMT -6 RW94-BR likes this

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Post by chopin - River Ridge on Aug 29, 2019 10:10:58 GMT -6

I did BCP planning when I lived in St Pete, where our headquarters were. There main scenarios we had to worry about
1) A storm surge coming up tampa bay - this is a rare pattern, but it would be devastating. A storm curving back into area north of tampa would be the worst
2) St Pete is a peninsula and could get cut off by water
3) driving north out of florida

We almost pulled the trigger for Charlie but did not.

Once a year, we practiced - staff would travel to some midwest state and restore all our systems

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:11:17 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:11:17 GMT -6 GFS is in basic agreement with the ICON in terms of process; it, too, makes landfall and rides up the spine. It just does it at a higher latitude.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SCOT PILIE'
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:16:08 GMT -6 via mobile roz and Stacie-Lumberton, MS like this

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Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 29, 2019 10:16:08 GMT -6

A notable shift southward in the 12Z GFS with landfall between Melbourne and Daytona Beach. Unfortunately for residents up and down the Florida Peninsula, this is going to be a long couple of days agonizing Model flip-flop. In this situation...basically the entire coastline will be waiting for that west turn to occur on Saturday with no clear cut answers on exact landfall location as just a few degrees of difference could shift the landfall 50-100+ miles. Best advice is to prepare in advance just in case and sit back and watch.

In addition, the weakness north of Dorian on this run was slightly quicker and weaker. Which allows Dorian to move painfully slowly in the Florida Peninsula, allowing for a significant prolonged rain/wind/surge threat.

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2019 10:19:57 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'

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nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:16:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:16:25 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 10:10:58 GMT -6 chopin - River Ridge said:

I did BCP planning when I lived in St Pete, where our headquarters were. There main scenarios we had to worry about
1) A storm surge coming up tampa bay - this is a rare pattern, but it would be devastating. A storm curving back into area north of tampa would be the worst
2) St Pete is a peninsula and could get cut off by water
3) driving north out of florida

We almost pulled the trigger for Charlie but did not.

Once a year, we practiced - staff would travel to some midwest state and restore all our systems

While all of these would be a concern, #3 would be my personal biggest. It's a long way out with only so many interstates.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:17:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 10:17:22 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2019 10:07:09 GMT -6 weatherboyy said: UKMET in gom Looks like it exits near Tampa and then toward the panhandle. Last of the west runners? Or a beginning of a new round of west runners?
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kennethb GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,021	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:22:23 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by kennethb on Aug 29, 2019 10:22:23 GMT -6 Disney World may have to close for a couple of days.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:34:39 GMT -6 klstiger and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 29, 2019 10:34:39 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2019 10:22:23 GMT -6 kennethb said: Disney World may have to close for a couple of days.

nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:35:33 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:35:33 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 10:17:22 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Aug 29, 2019 10:07:09 GMT -6 weatherboyy said:

UKMET in gom

Looks like it exits near Tampa and then toward the panhandle. Last of the west runners? Or a beginning of a new round of west runners?

I shall call it the last of the west runners. I have no data to support this; it is simply my optimistic thinking. :sun:

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

southernbelle Category 3 Posts: 677	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 10:49:31 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by southernbelle on Aug 29, 2019 10:49:31 GMT -6 Everything depends on when the left turn is made! Until then we watch and wait!

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Post by N5RTF on Aug 29, 2019 9:49:46 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 9:54:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 9:58:17 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:02:01 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:03:34 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Aug 29, 2019 10:07:09 GMT -6

Post by chopin - River Ridge on Aug 29, 2019 10:10:58 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:11:17 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 29, 2019 10:16:08 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:16:25 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 10:17:22 GMT -6

Post by kennethb on Aug 29, 2019 10:22:23 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 29, 2019 10:34:39 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 10:35:33 GMT -6

Post by southernbelle on Aug 29, 2019 10:49:31 GMT -6

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