Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

wbanklady
Category 1

Posts: 342

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:33:06 GMT -6 via mobile bayougranny and suncindy like this

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Post by wbanklady on Aug 29, 2019 20:33:06 GMT -6

I want Zack to weigh in. His post on Friday before Katrina hit made me pack up my daughter and I to leave before 7:30 the Saturday morning before Katrina hit. My gut knew it was coming but he solidified it for me.

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2019 20:33:53 GMT -6 by wbanklady

RhythmPidgin
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Posts: 9

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:37:26 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by RhythmPidgin on Aug 29, 2019 20:37:26 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 20:17:20 GMT -6 stormweary said:

The only direct hit to Jacksonville since 1871 was Hurricane Dora in 1964. Apparently the majority of the time they get glancing blows from storms to the north and south as well as those crossing from the gulf to the Atlantic. Interesting! 🤯

It’s not just Jacksonville and northeast Florida. The “Protected Coast” extends from Charleston to Vero Beach. But it’s also been a while since the last landfalling hurricane on the east coast of Florida. Katrina, maybe?

stormweary GCWX Supporter Posts: 370	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:37:56 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:37:56 GMT -6 Nope it said 1871. I wonder if that’s when they started keeping records?

stormweary GCWX Supporter Posts: 370	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:39:19 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:39:19 GMT -6 The question is what protects them?

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:39:28 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Aug 29, 2019 20:39:28 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2019 19:51:09 GMT -6 nolamatt said: Have you seen the HMON model... 921 millibars and 163 mph winds... O.o The Keys would be flattened if that happened

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
Category 4

Posts: 894

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:41:16 GMT -6

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Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 29, 2019 20:41:16 GMT -6

Dorian is putting on a show tonight guys. Hope the ensembles that put this bad boy out to sea materialize and it is a fish storm. In case they aren't, everyone in Florida must prepare for a major storm on their doorstep for Labor Day.

Recon in #Hurricane #Dorian continues to report SFMR winds above 90 kts. Recent pass has a non-flagged 95 kt wind. Lowest pressure on this pass was 976 mb.

Hard to imagine we are not already looking at a Cat. 2 Hurricane.

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2019 20:43:26 GMT -6 by sjbpgal-St. John Parish

RhythmPidgin
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:43:51 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by RhythmPidgin on Aug 29, 2019 20:43:51 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 20:37:56 GMT -6 stormweary said:

Nope it said 1871. I wonder if that’s when they started keeping records?

You gotta go pretty deep. Since 1851, you have Cumberland Island in 1898 and Dora. Before that, reporting gets pretty sketchy.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:45:27 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 20:45:27 GMT -6 Without the specifics we all get the idea. Amazing

nolasim
Moderator

Posts: 6,930
Location: Algiers-West Bank

Staff Member

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:47:53 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:47:53 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 20:33:06 GMT -6 wbanklady said:

I want Zack to weigh in. His post on Friday before Katrina hit made me pack up my daughter and I to leave before 7:30 the Saturday morning before Katrina hit. My gut knew it was coming but he solidified it for me.

He weighed in on FB earlier today; basically said our chances for SE LA are extremely diminished. There will always be a model that takes it to SE LA for every storm.

We need to continue to watch Dorian, however, because........well you know.........it's a hurricane. They sometimes do not follow the plan of the model plots.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

stormweary GCWX Supporter Posts: 370	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:48:41 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:48:41 GMT -6 Should we all spend Hurricane season in Jacksonville?

nolasim
Moderator

Posts: 6,930
Location: Algiers-West Bank

Staff Member

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:49:05 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:49:05 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2019 20:43:51 GMT -6 RhythmPidgin said:

Aug 29, 2019 20:37:56 GMT -6 stormweary said:

Nope it said 1871. I wonder if that’s when they started keeping records?

You gotta go pretty deep. Since 1851, you have Cumberland Island in 1898 and Dora. Before that, reporting gets pretty sketchy.

BTW............yours is my new favorite screen name. Before this, it was PerkyLizard. RhythmPidgin clearly out-does PerkyLizard.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:50:37 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:50:37 GMT -6 00Z ICON has started. Y'all can check it out or I can be court reporter if anyone prefers.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:50:58 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 20:50:58 GMT -6 There is not one credible met that would or should make a call right now. Ideas...yes.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:51:03 GMT -6 goldenbetty likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 20:51:03 GMT -6 I haven't looked at recon tonight, but looking at IR, I'm starting to wonder if his more WNW turn has begun.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,383	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2019 20:51:37 GMT -6 via mobile whitecap and saetyl like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2019 20:51:37 GMT -6 I miss Nash. He would of nailed this
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Post by wbanklady on Aug 29, 2019 20:33:06 GMT -6

Post by RhythmPidgin on Aug 29, 2019 20:37:26 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:37:56 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:39:19 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Aug 29, 2019 20:39:28 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 29, 2019 20:41:16 GMT -6

Post by RhythmPidgin on Aug 29, 2019 20:43:51 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 20:45:27 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:47:53 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Aug 29, 2019 20:48:41 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:49:05 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2019 20:50:37 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 29, 2019 20:50:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2019 20:51:03 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2019 20:51:37 GMT -6

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