Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Can someone explain similarities/differences in the setup between Katrina and Dorian? If the storm does move across the southern tip of Florida and into the GOM, what are the players that will influence the track of the storm? Thanks

I think we all here in SELA have Tropical PTSD from this exact scenario because it played out almost exactly the same way in 2005 but like those who are much wiser than me have stated on this forum the models are leaps and bounds better today than then. If this storm was in 2009 then I would be highly skeptical of any forecast. However, like us all, I do reserve that small space in the cobwebs of my brain that always reminds me "it can happen." Just be conscious of what the storm is doing and avoid wishcasters they are kinda like conspiracy theorist the more you fear their scenario or give them the slight credibility the worse they become.

I asked Zack through FB to pop on here, if he has time, to help calm fears about this storm's path and that this one is not Katrina.

If anyone is interested, Brad Panovich is Live on Facebook.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 301449
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

Exactly. And as mentioned before from someone else, models have come a long way since 2005. But I can still understand how they're scared.