Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

derecho Meteorologist Posts: 100	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 18:20:14 GMT -6 thibodauxwx, Jess23, and 3 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by derecho on Aug 31, 2019 18:20:14 GMT -6 000500 2621N 07443W 7471 02139 9563 +147 //// 082127 136 148 056 01 Extrapolated surface winds of 148kt (170mph)....yikes
	ULM Atmospheric Science BS UAH Earth System Science MS Huntsville, AL // St. Amant, LA

Stacie-Lumberton, MS
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 18:26:04 GMT -6 thibodauxwx and Jess23 like this

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Post by Stacie-Lumberton, MS on Aug 31, 2019 18:26:04 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 18:18:22 GMT -6 thibodauxwx said:

Stacie just pointed out both planes have found winds in the north east eye wall over 158mph, it looks like he’s going to make Cat 5 after all .

Looking again, it's more the east side of the north eye wall.

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 18:26:36 GMT -6 via mobile sjbpgal-St. John Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 31, 2019 18:26:36 GMT -6 That’s frightening.

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 18:48:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Aug 31, 2019 18:48:29 GMT -6 This is going to sterilize some of the Bahamas.

Nola Mike
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Location: Hammond/Robert

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 18:50:18 GMT -6 via mobile chloe06 likes this

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Post by Nola Mike on Aug 31, 2019 18:50:18 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 16:20:22 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Excuse my ignorance...but I am concerned that the track seems to be moving due west now. Is there absolutely no chance that this could come into the gulf? Just want to make sure that there are no surprises.

just like yesterday no

nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:11:23 GMT -6 chloe06, burasla, and 5 more like this

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Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:11:23 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 16:20:22 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Excuse my ignorance...but I am concerned that the track seems to be moving due west now. Is there absolutely no chance that this could come into the gulf? Just want to make sure
that there are no surprises.

Chloe, I'll put it in football terms. It's like the Saints are winning 24-13 with 2 minutes to go in the game, they have the ball, and the other team has no timeouts. Is it possible for the Saints to lose? Sure. Is it at all likely? No.

At this point, biblical things would have to happen for Dorian to make it into the Gulf.

By the way.........the track is not moving west; the storm is. The storm is doing exactly as predicted. We'll be fine.

Last Edit: Aug 31, 2019 19:12:38 GMT -6 by nolasim

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

chloe06
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Posts: 1,254

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:27:08 GMT -6

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Post by chloe06 on Aug 31, 2019 19:27:08 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 19:11:23 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Aug 31, 2019 16:20:22 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Excuse my ignorance...but I am concerned that the track seems to be moving due west now. Is there absolutely no chance that this could come into the gulf? Just want to make sure
that there are no surprises.

Chloe, I'll put it in football terms. It's like the Saints are winning 24-13 with 2 minutes to go in the game, they have the ball, and the other team has no timeouts. Is it possible for the Saints to lose? Sure. Is it at all likely? No.

At this point, biblical things would have to happen for Dorian to make it into the Gulf.

By the way.........the track is not moving west; the storm is. The storm is doing exactly as predicted. We'll be fine.

Thanks so much. I will stop worrying as of now. Just that nervous stomach I get around this time of year. Apologies!

jimmycarl
Category 5

Posts: 1,514

Location: West Side Of The MS Coast

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:34:11 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat, thibodauxwx, and 3 more like this

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Post by jimmycarl on Aug 31, 2019 19:34:11 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 17:28:12 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Aug 31, 2019 17:23:49 GMT -6 harpman - old said:

Sorry just hurricane PTSD

That's pretty normal. Anyone who lives on the coast has hurricane PTSD if they're even close to normal.

nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:38:37 GMT -6 Mike T.- Chackbay,La, chloe06, and 2 more like this

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Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:38:37 GMT -6

Aug 31, 2019 19:27:08 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Aug 31, 2019 19:11:23 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Chloe, I'll put it in football terms. It's like the Saints are winning 24-13 with 2 minutes to go in the game, they have the ball, and the other team has no timeouts. Is it possible for the Saints to lose? Sure. Is it at all likely? No.

At this point, biblical things would have to happen for Dorian to make it into the Gulf.

By the way.........the track is not moving west; the storm is. The storm is doing exactly as predicted. We'll be fine.

Thanks so much. I will stop worrying as of now. Just that nervous stomach I get around this time of year. Apologies!

Chloe, again............you are fine. No need to apologize. I will say this............when I first moved to Buras from Ohio back in 1982, there were folks who literally shook when I asked them what Hurricane Camille was like. I didn't get it; I was like, "It's been 13 years..........get over it already!" After Katrina, I went down to Buras to salvage some textbooks and band instruments, and seeing what was before my eyes..............I got it. I understood why people were still shaking 13 years later. What you are going through during these superstorms especially is not uncommon, and it's okay.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

sjbpgal-St. John Parish Category 4 Posts: 894	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:48:58 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl and thibodauxwx like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 31, 2019 19:48:58 GMT -6

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:49:18 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Aug 31, 2019 19:49:18 GMT -6 Another really good update by Levi. www.tropicaltidbits.com/

nolasim
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:50:42 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, thibodauxwx, and 2 more like this

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Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:50:42 GMT -6

Dorian is an absolute monster. There's going to be nothing left of the Cay Islands in the Bahamas. I hope all the people got the hell out of there. The cafes and taverns are going to be swept out into the ocean.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

matt GCWX Supporter Posts: 317	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 19:53:40 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by matt on Aug 31, 2019 19:53:40 GMT -6 smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/ In range of radar now

sjbpgal-St. John Parish Category 4 Posts: 894	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 20:02:55 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 31, 2019 20:02:55 GMT -6 Feel sick... this beast shows no signs of slowing down and is headed straight for the Bahamas... hope all those people got out safely!

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread Aug 31, 2019 20:15:05 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 31, 2019 20:15:05 GMT -6 I think it will be upgraded to a Cat 5 on the next advisory

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Post by derecho on Aug 31, 2019 18:20:14 GMT -6

Post by Stacie-Lumberton, MS on Aug 31, 2019 18:26:04 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 31, 2019 18:26:36 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Aug 31, 2019 18:48:29 GMT -6

Post by Nola Mike on Aug 31, 2019 18:50:18 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:11:23 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Aug 31, 2019 19:27:08 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Aug 31, 2019 19:34:11 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:38:37 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 31, 2019 19:48:58 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Aug 31, 2019 19:49:18 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 31, 2019 19:50:42 GMT -6

Post by matt on Aug 31, 2019 19:53:40 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 31, 2019 20:02:55 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 31, 2019 20:15:05 GMT -6

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