Post by thibodauxwx on May 25, 2020 12:23:46 GMT -6
Yes it does, I’m not to worried about this, we see this every year. The models showing something for days, as as it gets closer to the time frame, poof it goes away. but I read somewhere that the GFS pegged Author 300 hours out. Just going watch and see what does or doesn’t develop. At least we have something to watch .
Post by hurricaner on May 25, 2020 18:04:01 GMT -6
Well we have another yellow, but doubtful it will develop.
520 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough of low pressure extending across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low could form along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due to strong upper-level winds.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding over portions of southern and central Florida tonight, spreading northward to coastal sections of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coasts of eastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Wednesday. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Tuesday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Last Edit: May 25, 2020 18:06:44 GMT -6 by hurricaner
The GFS has been very consistent with SOMETHING forming and heading either into Louisiana, Florida, or the Bahamas for the past 3-4 days at roughly the same time frame. Problem is each run flip flops with intensity and landfall location. The bottom line is that it thinks something will exist in the general location of the GoM around the beginning of the 2nd week of June. More importantly, its origin is a storm on the Pacific side that crosses Honduras and Belize, into the Caribbean, and redevelops. In all my years of watching the tropics, I think I've seen that happen only once. It's rare.
Post by thibodauxwx on May 26, 2020 11:04:28 GMT -6
12Z GFS rolling out, still has a possible storm, moving up in hours,now at the coast in 312 hrs. but still on the same day, still heading to the northern gulf coast.
Post by weatherboyy on May 26, 2020 13:06:39 GMT -6
New Orleans,Louisiana's history with tropical systems .Average years between direct hurricane hits.(hurricane force winds for a few hours) (10h)once every 14.80 years Average years between direct major hurricane hits.(major hurricane at adv upon passage) (4) Every 37 years this by Jim Williams.looks like we overdo no wish I'm just saying..
weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image
12Z GFS rolling out, still has a possible storm, moving up in hours,now at the coast in 312 hrs. but still on the same day, still heading to the northern gulf coast.
Except in the 12Z run the system stays on the weak side (12Z 997mb vs 06Z 973mb).
GCWX Board Member
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
GOM at 324 hours 12Z GFS ensembles 
