On the spc outlook. Go to the day 2 outlook and click on the Probablistic button at the top. It's also in list form at the bottom of the text
I guess my comment is there doesn't appear to be any way to know that graphic exists or any kind link to it from our regional page from point and click. If they create such a nice graphic it should be prominent on our regional page for the public to find. Perhaps I am missing it but I don't see it here anywhere.
That percentage graphic should be prominent on our regional LIX page. Other severe graphic are there but not the SPC percentage one.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Jan 10, 2020 1:26:13 GMT -6
SPC Day One Friday Morning
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds are the greatest severe risk, though tornadoes are possible along with very large hail across the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over AZ/northern Mexico, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by 18z as 90+kt 500mb speed max rotates into the base of the trough south of the Big Bend region. In response to this trough, LLJ is forecast to increase across northwest TX which will enhance low-level warm advection across western OK. Low-level moisture is advancing northwest across OK and should aid buoyancy for elevated convection between 12-14z. Forecast soundings suggest elevated supercells are possible early in the period and this is supported by CAMs with a cluster of convection that will spread northeast across northern OK/southern KS. As this activity spreads east into upper 50s/lower 60s dew points, convection will have an opportunity to become surface based, though discrete cells may not be particularly common as a polar front sags into this region.
Farther south, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across west TX where surface-3km lapse rates are forecast to approach 9 C/km. At the same time, strong mid-level height falls will spread across the southern Plains by peak heating, and thunderstorms should easily develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest thinking is scattered supercells will evolve from east-central OK - north-central TX - southwestern TX between 19-21z. This activity will be strongly sheared and could produce very large hail early in the convective cycle. With time, multi-scale forcing will encourage an extensive squall line that should race east toward the Arklatex region. Damaging winds will likely be common along this squall line as it advances across eastern OK/east TX during the evening hours. Linear MCS will continue east during the overnight hours, advancing to near the MS River toward the end of the period.
While damaging winds should be the primary threat with the squall line, very strong shear and moist profiles will likely result in embedded supercells. A few tornadoes are expected along the QLCS but the lack of confidence in discrete pre-frontal supercells will preclude more than 10% tornado probs during the day1 period.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Jan 10, 2020 1:27:51 GMT -6
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected across parts of the southeastern U.S. on Saturday.
...Southeast/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Carolinas... At the beginning of the period, an upper-level trough will be located in the southern Plains with a powerful 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet in the Arklatex. At the surface, a low is forecast over the mid Mississippi Valley with a cold front extending southward from the low into southeast Arkansas and central Louisiana. A squall-line should be ongoing at 12Z just ahead of the front with the line moving eastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast by midday. Ahead of the front, forecast soundings during the morning show surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will create conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts along the stronger parts of the line. In addition, an impressive 60 to 80 kt low-level jet should be in place in the lower Mississippi Valley. The low-level shear created by the jet will be favorable for tornadoes along the more organized parts of the line. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist with rotating storms embedded in the line. A strong tornado could also occur ahead of the line if a discrete supercell develops. The squall-line is expected to contain a severe threat through the morning and afternoon, reaching eastern Alabama, far western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by 00Z/Sunday.
The upper-level trough and associated low-level jet will move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley in the mid to late afternoon and into the Ohio Valley by early evening. For this reason, the most focused band of large-scale ascent should move northeastward away from the central Gulf Coast states. In response, the northern part of the squall-line may extend as far north as central Kentucky where a marginal wind damage/tornado threat could develop. This threat may extend eastward across the southern Appalachians during the evening, possibly reaching the Carolinas Saturday night. Increasing instability in South Carolina and south-central North Carolina combined with the strong low-level shear may be enough for a marginal wind damage/tornado threat from late evening into the overnight.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight
Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Far Northeast LA...Northwest/West-Central MS...Far Southwest TN
Valid 101053Z - 101300Z
SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will occur across central/eastern AR, far northeast LA, northwest/west-central MS, and far southwest TN with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook.
DISCUSSION...Based on recent guidance, the probability for significant wind gusts (i.e. gusts at or above 75 mph) to occur late tonight into early Saturday across northeast LA, central/eastern AR, far southwest TN, and northwest/west-central MS has increased. This increase in probability merits an increase to Moderate Risk, which will occur with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. This expanded Moderate Risk will include Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN.
More details regarding the meteorological conditions will be available within the outlook.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North Louisiana, ahead of a strong upper level storm system and associated cold front that will move into the Southern Plains. Some of these storms may be severe, with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall possible. The severe weather threat will diminish from west to east across the region late tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish across Southcentral Arkansas and the eastern sections of Northcentral Louisiana by mid morning Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to portions of East Texas, Southern Arkansas, and North Louisiana Monday through Wednesday, before diminishing Wednesday night and Thursday with the passage of a cold front. However, no hazardous weather is expected.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters, will be needed tonight across the region.