HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread

The message in that Twitter post precisely says why an all-clear message should not be sent, it is an extremely deep trough for this time of year. If it happens, that's wonderful, but this far out I would by no means say we're in the clear, especially if he stays south and weak. He stays south, the trough lifts out or flattens, and we get a lazy NW turn further west into the GOM.

That’s my worry. Trough overdone and it’s left behind. Then high pressure builds and the classic Florida / N Gulfcoast connection is in play.

Thinking over how models seem to forecast systems headed from that part of the Caribbean it's hard to remember forecast tracks shifting further east over time...they seem to always shift west in general.

Not a data backed comment but at least my memory is like that....

Of course that really has nothing to do with this system.....it will do whatever it does regardless of all that

Bob Breck, not that I care for him, is also saying the trough will protect us.

Matt Lanza on Twitter has a diagram of what appears to be all modern TD’s that have come in contact with Haiti /DR in JJAnS. Unbelievable only about two out of 20 or 25 ever make contact w Florida. 1 goes on the W coast and another goes from Haiti N then turns W n eventually crosses the peninsula. Vast majority into W Gulf and N Gulfcoast or just E of Florida and out to see. The current “spine” solution would be extremely rare. It’s worth looking him up. Amazing climatolog.

That is easily a 90 or 95% chance this will go W or E of the entire peninsula (spine) of Florida. Going up the entire middle of the spine is unlikely with a weak tropical system over Haiti / DR at this point. Wyatt says don’t rule out anything yet and Zack thinks the trough n East. Looking at the diagram literally shows both potential scenarios. Just need a damn real center.

The center is largely the key, I'm just not ready to buy into that strong of a trough just yet. It's just too far off for me to soundly say it's going to shield the GOM. Time and trends will allow a better idea in a couple of days, IF there's anything to track.


However as 2020 has proven thus far, it has been a bit of a strange summer, strange and unexpected patterns.