Summer 2021 Daily Weather Discussion Thread
Apr 20, 2021 5:48:11 GMT -6
harpman - old, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this
Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 20, 2021 5:48:11 GMT -6
I have 2 unrelated questions, and I'm not sure which thread to ask them in, so I'll post here.
One is pertaining to the storm that blew up near grand isle that flipped the L/B Seacor Power. Forecast called for some T-storms and 20+ kt winds offshore. Speaking to many folks offshore that day, I've been told the winds went from nothing special to 100+ mph in and instant. Was this a mesoscale vortex? Or just a really strong cell? Has this question even been asked?
The second question is much broader and it's something I've been thinking about a lot over the past year at least. I was asked this question at a festival this weekend by some old friends that remember me being a weather enthusiast. I'll preface the question by saying that I rely on multiple weather forecast media daily due to my job offshore. For the past year, it's been almost impossible to plan boat moves, flights, and work to be performed because ALL the forecast seem to be wrong WAY more often then they were before this past year. You can include the 2020 hurricane season in this, but it's more than that. Rain events, wind/sea states, temps, fog, etc... Is this just recent-bias on my part or has the past 12 months been more difficult to predict than normal? Also, has this question been asked.
TY
Dutar76 I read somewhere (can't remember where), that the Seacor storm was a downburst. If so, that would explain the extreme increase in winds. We see downbursts all the time over land blast winds of 70+mph so over water, those winds can easily reach 100+mph.
Your second question, and this is just my opinion, is that I think forecasters are relying more and more on computed forecast models rather than pen and pencil forecasts. T. Scott Barry, whom used to post here quite often, is an old school forecaster. Sure he looks at computer guidance, but I've seen his work. Everything is drawn on maps with pencil, charts made, recordings made, etc...and he's just about 100% accurate on everything he sends me. He calls out severe outbreaks well ahead of time, and usually always pinpoints areas that should be highlighted with greater risks. Then once the event is over, I usually get an email explaining where the SPC or NWS has gone wrong. Again, most of his forecasts are old school.