TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread

Very interesting. Can never trust a summer Gulf.

There is a line moving up over NOLA now!!!

Their forecast looks wet through Tuesday. I never forget that areas of NOLA can flood almost ANY day. Most of the time specifics are never known on a forecast. And the soils are fully saturated.

Winds are now at 45mph but still  PTC probably due to lack of organization.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021


...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...



SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Don’t know how to post images from my phone, but here’s the link to a WPC mesoscale discussion. I will try to post the image.

“Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana and coastal areas of
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181647Z - 190000Z

Summary...A flash-flood risk will emerge through the evening hours
as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 makes its slow approach to the
Louisiana coastline.

Discussion...Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 continues a slow
northward movement toward the Louisiana coastline and was located
roughly 220 miles south of Houma at 15Z. On the eastern periphery
of this cyclone, strong, broadly confluent low-level flow was
contributing to widespread showers and thunderstorms that was just
beginning to impact far southeastern Louisiana per recent radar
imagery. The band of convection extends well southward into the
central Gulf of Mexico within a weakly buoyant, but very moist
airmass characterized by 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2+ inch PW
values, respectively. This axis of convection is oriented
favorably with the projected track of PTC 3 to produce several
hours of moderate to heavy rainfall - potentially well beyond the
expiration of this MPD. Precip rates are relatively light
currently, but should increase over time and with spatial extent
from southeast to northwest across the discussion area especially
after 19Z or so. Precipitation rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour
will eventually materialize - especially in any heavier bands that
can emerge. The slow forward motion of the TC will also result in
prolonged heavy rainfall potential as well. The prolonged
rainfall potential will gradually moisten soils and lower FFG
thresholds, increasing the flash flood threat especially after 20z and beyond.”