TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread

jimmycarl
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Location: West Side Of The MS Coast

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 8:58:08 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 likes this

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Post by jimmycarl on Jun 19, 2021 8:58:08 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2021 7:43:36 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 said:

Jun 19, 2021 5:45:04 GMT -6 HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN said:

From Zack, off of Facebook

Meteorologist Zack Fradella
·
Rainfall totals the past 24 hours paints the picture of the difficulty in this forecast. A swath of 10-12" from Plaquemines Parish up to Slidell/MS Gulf Coast, around 2-3" in NOLA, then basically nothing in western areas.

I'm at 2.32" total for the storm so that map under reports my place on the western end of the rainshield

Guess I am at the 10+ inches here in the Cuevas area of MS west of Gulfport. There were multiple 40kt + wind gust registered at Station WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS with the highest registering at 46 kt. (06 18, 11:18 pm E 33.0 kt sustained - 46.0 kt gust).

bikerbabe
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:00:38 GMT -6 nolasim and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by bikerbabe on Jun 19, 2021 9:00:38 GMT -6

OK I just went and looked it up.

There are factors other than wind that are considered in calling a storm besides wind - maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots).

"A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system (not associated with a front) that develops over tropical and sometimes sub-tropical waters and has organized deep convection with a closed wind circulation about a well-defined center."

((Source: www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions#:~:text=A%20tropical%20cyclone%20is%20a,about%20a%20well-defined%20center.))

Last Edit: Jun 19, 2021 9:08:52 GMT -6 by bikerbabe

nolasim
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:02:54 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 9:02:54 GMT -6

Certainly I'm not one to beat a dead horse, but behaviorally this is rather fascinating to me. This is from the 10:00 p.m. discussion last night from forecaster Beven, six hours before forecaster Blake called it a tropical storm:

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with
the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is
slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level
clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just
before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field
is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern
Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated
with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls.
Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone,
as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a
tropical or subtropical cyclone.

So I wonder if this was a judgement call or if things changed that much in six hours.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

bikerbabe Category 1 Posts: 217	TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:07:31 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bikerbabe on Jun 19, 2021 9:07:31 GMT -6 I found this fascinating also -- and yes, I stayed up all almost all night watching it.

Dutar76
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:10:56 GMT -6

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Post by Dutar76 on Jun 19, 2021 9:10:56 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2021 9:02:54 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Certainly I'm not one to beat a dead horse, but behaviorally this is rather fascinating to me. This is from the 10:00 p.m. discussion last night from forecaster Beven, six hours before forecaster Blake called it a tropical storm:

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with
the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is
slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level
clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just
before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field
is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern
Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated
with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls.
Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone,
as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a
tropical or subtropical cyclone.

So I wonder if this was a judgement call or if things changed that much in six hours.

In today's world, I'm going to go with politics and money. I don't personally know the difference in insurance premiums if the storm is named or not... but from reading a few posts on here, there seems to be a monetary difference (in the insurance companies favor) if the storm has a name. I'd place my bet on that affecting the 4am change in classification.

I mean, did the storm actually pull itself together over land? Not completely unheard of. I believe that it was just a theory until a couple of years ago when it happened over South Carolina (I think). I'll just go with the old axiom... follow the $$$.

johnny
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:11:45 GMT -6 via mobile harpman - old, ju, and 2 more like this

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Post by johnny on Jun 19, 2021 9:11:45 GMT -6

Naming the storm is political. They named this storm for the same reason they named the first two “storms” this season. Now they can talk about global warming in the increase of storms every year. 5 years ago we would still be waiting for our first storm. Looks like another year of 20+ named “storms”

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Member is Online Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:21:38 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 9:21:38 GMT -6 Pensacola is currently getting rocked with this storm. Fortunately, as with Mobile during the night, it's a relatively narrow yet intense line that shouldn't linger. No one's on the beach this morning I'm sure.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

jimmycarl
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Location: West Side Of The MS Coast

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:27:06 GMT -6

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Post by jimmycarl on Jun 19, 2021 9:27:06 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2021 9:00:38 GMT -6 bikerbabe said:

OK I just went and looked it up.

There are factors other than wind that are considered in calling a storm besides wind - maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots).

"A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system (not associated with a front) that develops over tropical and sometimes sub-tropical waters and has organized deep convection with a closed wind circulation about a well-defined center." ((Source: www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions#:~:text=A%20tropical%20cyclone%20is%20a,about%20a%20well-defined%20center.))

If you stick to that definition 100% especially the 3 word phrase "well defined center" than it was a sketchy call as per all their own discussions as it really never develope a "well defined center". Not sure it's worth beating a dead horse over and condemning the NHC on it. They did a pretty darn good job with this mess of a storm. I for one did not see any surprises above what the NHC was telling us it was going to do.

trethe
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:37:06 GMT -6 nolasim, brandalyn74, and 3 more like this

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Post by trethe on Jun 19, 2021 9:37:06 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2021 7:38:00 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Jun 19, 2021 6:02:43 GMT -6 trethe said:

In my opinion, this was an absolutely amazing job by the National Hurricane Center with this storm! The utilization of the "PTC" designation for the issuance of advisories is awesome. There will be some that will question their judgment and decision making... Bravo Zulu to the NHC and King GFS!!!

Part of our job as a meteorologist is communication. The technical science stuff may not say it's a storm but you have to factor in the communication aspect...so you have to call it a storm yesterday.

If you don't call it yesterday, then don't call it at all. The last thing you do is name it at 4AM once it's on land after the impacts have already hit many locations and most are sleeping.

For everyone on this forum, you have the luxury of having basic weather knowledge. The general public doesn't.

Look those guys at the NHC are smarter than I and way more experienced but you can't let a situation like this happen. Satellite showed enough of a circulation yesterday evening to upgrade. I've read many storm discussions throughout my time and when storms are weak they say the circulation remains broad. Why couldn't they do that with this?

I believe that you guys in Broadcast Meteorology have a very difficult job in terms of being able to communicate effectively to the general public. (You do a great job by the way!!) Every individual interprets what they read, hear, and see, in terms of their own education and life experiences. No matter what or how you say something, it will be interpreted differently by each individual. Unfortunately, sometimes it can be interpreted the exact opposite of what you were trying to convey. I can only imagine how frustrating this must be.

Thanks for all you do!! You are appreciated!!!

Oh, by the way... I believe you are just as smart as those individuals at the National Hurricane Center.

thibodauxwx
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Posts: 3,537

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 9:47:51 GMT -6 via mobile brandalyn74 and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by thibodauxwx on Jun 19, 2021 9:47:51 GMT -6

While following the forum over the past few days, one of the models did say it would develop over land, there was a little discussion on it. We need to look back and see which one it was, very interesting!

bigryan92
Category 1

Posts: 191

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 10:00:15 GMT -6 via mobile thibodauxwx likes this

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Post by bigryan92 on Jun 19, 2021 10:00:15 GMT -6

ThibodauxWX: It Was the Euro showing it strengthening once it moved on land and I think it showed it moving off of the east coast as a storm. Crazy how a model can depict those type of things.

MobileWeatherWatcher
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 10:01:44 GMT -6 via mobile harpman - old, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 1 more like this

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Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Jun 19, 2021 10:01:44 GMT -6

Not too bad during the night. Although I did have a tornado warning a little after 3:00. The storm did produce a tornado at Cedar Point in the very southern part of Mobile County that damaged a fishing pier. But the tornado dissipated before it got to my area

bigryan92 Category 1 Posts: 191	TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 10:01:49 GMT -6 via mobile PinkFreud - Nola FQ, ju, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bigryan92 on Jun 19, 2021 10:01:49 GMT -6 My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the Slidell area that got hit hard with flooding rains overnight. Areas to the east are in my prayers as well.

nolasim
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 10:17:35 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher likes this

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Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 10:17:35 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2021 10:01:44 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said:

Not too bad during the night. Although I did have a tornado warning a little after 3:00. The storm did produce a tornado at Cedar Point in the very southern part of Mobile County that damaged a fishing pier. But the tornado dissipated before it got to my area

I was wondering about you; thanks for the update!

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

maxgoldman Category 1 Posts: 115	TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread Jun 19, 2021 10:20:39 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by maxgoldman on Jun 19, 2021 10:20:39 GMT -6 Jun 19, 2021 8:54:05 GMT -6 nolasim said: Just for shitz and giggles, given that we had an official named storm, do we have an official landfall location? NE of Houma.
	Last Edit: Jun 19, 2021 12:11:19 GMT -6 by maxgoldman

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE Discussion Thread

Post by jimmycarl on Jun 19, 2021 8:58:08 GMT -6

Post by bikerbabe on Jun 19, 2021 9:00:38 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 9:02:54 GMT -6

Post by bikerbabe on Jun 19, 2021 9:07:31 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Jun 19, 2021 9:10:56 GMT -6

Post by johnny on Jun 19, 2021 9:11:45 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 9:21:38 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Jun 19, 2021 9:27:06 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jun 19, 2021 9:37:06 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Jun 19, 2021 9:47:51 GMT -6

Post by bigryan92 on Jun 19, 2021 10:00:15 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Jun 19, 2021 10:01:44 GMT -6

Post by bigryan92 on Jun 19, 2021 10:01:49 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 19, 2021 10:17:35 GMT -6

Post by maxgoldman on Jun 19, 2021 10:20:39 GMT -6

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