TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread

nolasim
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 15:33:29 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

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Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:33:29 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 15:16:47 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

Jun 30, 2021 15:14:15 GMT -6 nolasim said:

You just gotta love that track. Just love it. Like I love the smell of the outhouse at Kenner Riverfront Park.

I'm perplexed, as the EURO dissipates it and even the Canadian is now following the GFS, but okay. I will not cast doubt on the NHC; they have been doing this too long, but wow that track.

when I saw the track, I was like what did I miss!

Yeah, if you read the thoughts I expressed below your post, then it's not so surprising. Nolasim needs to follow the words of wisdom he shared with Grisairgasm and chill. It is easy to look at the NHC graphic and do "Le Freak........pas chic!" or in our case, perhaps "pas NOLACHIC even".

Humor makes most things bearable.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 15:34:40 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:34:40 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 15:31:44 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

It's going to round the ridge and they're making an extremely well-educated guess on the shape and character. Some northern s/w to erode the edge and lead to Florida would be typical for the time period.

I'll note from last night, despite what the HWRF did (which did get my attention and has me questioning some of this hypothesis), the ride through the Caribbean looks rough for the system. Shear, a general pattern to support some sinking air and it really is only going to get more hostile as time goes on.

Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong but I'm not seeing the case for much more than a TS.

And the part of the NHC discussion which I quoted and displayed in red is in agreement for the most part with your last sentence.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 15:42:03 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 15:42:03 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 15:47:28 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:47:28 GMT -6 The earliest I ever had to put the boards up was on the 4th of July in 2005 for Cindy which hit us July 5, 2005. I don't think this will break that record.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 16:59:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Jun 30, 2021 16:59:03 GMT -6 The 4 o'clock NHC track is mirroring the 18z gfs run exactly up to the furthest point .

nolasim
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:15:47 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 17:15:47 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 16:59:03 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

The 4 o'clock NHC track is mirroring the 18z gfs run exactly up to the furthest point .

Good observation. The final solution is basically the same, perhaps a tad west. This run tortures the western Florida coast with an 80 mph hurricane.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Zack Fradella
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Jun 30, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6

Everyone gets caught up in the models that go out to 6-7 days and feel all confident. Then the NHC puts you in your place. 😂

We watch and we wait. No need to worry, no need to say it’s going to Florida just yet. Early developmental issues will create problems in modeling until the weekend.

Last Edit: Jun 30, 2021 17:56:24 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,378 Member is Online	TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:30:24 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Jun 30, 2021 17:30:24 GMT -6 Zack made a good point. I would actually feel better right now if the models had us in the bulls eye
	Last Edit: Jun 30, 2021 17:30:51 GMT -6 by cajungal 60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

weatherboyy
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:38:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:38:11 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Everyone gets caught up in the modes that go out to 6-7 days and feel all confident. Then the NHC puts you in your place. 😂

We watch and we wait. No need to worry, no need to say it’s going to Florida just yet. Early developmental issues will create problems in modeling until the weekend.

I'm very confident in the modes GO TO FL

weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:43:54 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:43:54 GMT -6 GFS Ensembles18z
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:44:00 GMT -6 via mobile darius Bogalusa likes this

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Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Jun 30, 2021 17:44:00 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 17:38:11 GMT -6 weatherboyy said:

Jun 30, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Everyone gets caught up in the modes that go out to 6-7 days and feel all confident. Then the NHC puts you in your place. 😂

We watch and we wait. No need to worry, no need to say it’s going to Florida just yet. Early developmental issues will create problems in modeling until the weekend.

I'm very confident in the modes GO TO FL

Was it Hurricane Laura that the models were in Florida then they started moving west?

nolachic
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:47:00 GMT -6

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Post by nolachic on Jun 30, 2021 17:47:00 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 15:09:17 GMT -6 bikerbabe said:

Seems like NHC has some different thoughts

www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205832_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This don't look like no fish to me!

Thou shall not utter her name

weatherboyy
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:51:40 GMT -6

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Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:51:40 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 17:44:00 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish said:

Jun 30, 2021 17:38:11 GMT -6 weatherboyy said:

I'm very confident in the modes GO TO FL

Was it Hurricane Laura that the models were in Florida then they started moving west?

yes but is difference year

weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

nolachic
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:53:00 GMT -6 nolasim and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by nolachic on Jun 30, 2021 17:53:00 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 15:33:29 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jun 30, 2021 15:16:47 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

when I saw the track, I was like what did I miss!

Yeah, if you read the thoughts I expressed below your post, then it's not so surprising. Nolasim needs to follow the words of wisdom he shared with Grisairgasm and chill. It is easy to look at the NHC graphic and do "Le Freak........pas chic!" or in our case, perhaps "pas NOLACHIC even".

Humor makes most things bearable.

Awe shucks, Slim. You give me more street cred than I deserve. I'm all Le Freakin' now!

Thou shall not utter her name

darius Bogalusa
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TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2021 17:56:13 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Jun 30, 2021 17:56:13 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2021 17:30:24 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Zack made a good point. I would actually feel better right now if the models had us in the bulls eye

I posted your exact words earlier today about wishing we were in the bullseye right now

TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:33:29 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:34:40 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 15:42:03 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 15:47:28 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Jun 30, 2021 16:59:03 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2021 17:15:47 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jun 30, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jun 30, 2021 17:30:24 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:38:11 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:43:54 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Jun 30, 2021 17:44:00 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Jun 30, 2021 17:47:00 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jun 30, 2021 17:51:40 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Jun 30, 2021 17:53:00 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Jun 30, 2021 17:56:13 GMT -6

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