CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion

thermalwind - Touro
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Posts: 1,407

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:36:48 GMT -6 optimist, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 6 more like this

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 24, 2021 20:36:48 GMT -6

This is going to be a big system, and those take more time to organize and it makes it harder to estimate where the center would end up being.

The steering certainly isn't what I want to see and the upper levels are absolutely very concerning, but there's still a huge range of possibilities because we can't nail much down until we nail down where the LLC ends up.

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,618	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:36:50 GMT -6 via mobile sjbpgal-St. John Parish likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Aug 24, 2021 20:36:50 GMT -6 ☝🏿 Amen
	Last Edit: Aug 24, 2021 20:38:09 GMT -6 by darius Bogalusa

grisairgasm
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CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:38:30 GMT -6 via mobile sjbpgal-St. John Parish and darius Bogalusa like this

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 20:38:30 GMT -6

Aug 24, 2021 20:33:59 GMT -6 sjbpgal-St. John Parish said:

FWIW the extended for our area of SE LA calls for increased chance of showers and storms for Friday into Tuesday, in the 60 to 80 percent range. Would that mean there isn't much left of a ridge to spare us from any tropical mischief?

Good question. Basically our moisture comes from the Gulf. And when rain chances are high we are usually getting Gulf moisture/ flow. So to me, those elevated precip
chances indicate a lack of strong ridging. Not what we want to see when something may be S of us.

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
Category 3

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CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:41:41 GMT -6 grisairgasm likes this

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 24, 2021 20:41:41 GMT -6

Thanks grisairgasm just what I suspected.

These are the lines from the NWS extended that caught my eye.

LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
The central Gulf Coast region will remain situated in easterly flow
to the southwest of the Bermuda ridge for much of the period. A
parade of easterly shortwave disturbances rotating around the ridge
will result in an unsettled weather pattern for the end of the week
and beginning of next week. Undercut NBM PoPs by 10-20 percent for
most days given the uncertainty in timing of any of these waves.
However, PoPs are still high (60-80 percent) each day.

grisairgasm
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Posts: 5,430

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:43:02 GMT -6 via mobile sjbpgal-St. John Parish likes this

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 20:43:02 GMT -6

Aug 24, 2021 20:32:13 GMT -6 harpman said:

Folks, please don’t start freaking out….

I'm not freaking out. I just thought it would be fun to sleep
on my roof tonight. Oh, but I'm not worried!

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:46:07 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 20:46:07 GMT -6 Basically this would be the cone if we had one right now.
	Last Edit: Aug 24, 2021 20:46:54 GMT -6 by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish

lowtide
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Posts: 28

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:49:04 GMT -6

Post by lowtide on Aug 24, 2021 20:49:04 GMT -6

Aug 24, 2021 20:36:44 GMT -6 ju said:

Aug 24, 2021 19:31:28 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Know what really pisses me off about this already? Wherever this develops and goes, it’s gonna flood a lot of people who refuse to get flood insurance because they don’t live in a “flood zone”. Then we’re all going to have to watch news stories documenting how the victims just don’t know what they’re gonna do now, financially. Happens every single time. Even here in the BR area after all the floods since 2016 we still have people refusing to buy flood insurance then being wowed by how high the water gets. Nobody has any excuse to not have flood insurance unless you live at the tip top of a mountain.

No I will not donate to your trashy godundme page because my money is already spent on my insurance premiums.

End of rant.

Geez, and I was going to beg for money to go to Greece. Thanks a lot.

Kidding, of course. I agree and basically, if you live in south Louisiana, it's foolish not to have flood insurance - we have water fricking everywhere, including the largest River in the country. It's pretty inexpensive especially if you happen to flood and lose your home. Homeowners ain't gonna cover it.

lowtide GCWX Supporter Posts: 28	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:54:37 GMT -6 ju likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lowtide on Aug 24, 2021 20:54:37 GMT -6 Woops! Was simply going to say Santorini is pretty nice!

lilspud
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CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 20:55:17 GMT -6 grisairgasm likes this

Post by lilspud on Aug 24, 2021 20:55:17 GMT -6

As in the words of Aaron Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X. If the models still say this by Friday I will start to get concerned. If (and big IF) it comes to your area I would prepare early. I don't know if it is staff or supply chain issues but most grocery stores are already low on inventory. I can't imagine what it would look like after a hurricane rush.

grisairgasm
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CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 21:00:29 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 21:00:29 GMT -6

I really thought a repeat ridge would be as initially forecast even earlier today. What bothers me is the ridge erosion being forecast to begin this far out. Making me give more
credibility to the poleward solutions.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,430	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 21:03:21 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 21:03:21 GMT -6 Also forgot to mention David Bernard showing a trough passing way to the N. Classic component of ridge erosion.

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 21:22:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Aug 24, 2021 21:22:57 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 21:42:46 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 21:42:46 GMT -6 00z
	Last Edit: Aug 24, 2021 21:43:25 GMT -6 by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish

sjbpgal-St. John Parish Category 3 Posts: 771	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 21:43:31 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 24, 2021 21:43:31 GMT -6 Place this in the FWIW category: 0Z ICON lands 99L as a Cat 2 west of Houston
	Last Edit: Aug 24, 2021 21:44:08 GMT -6 by sjbpgal-St. John Parish

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion Aug 24, 2021 22:01:30 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 22:01:30 GMT -6 0z is north of its 18z position as of now, its crossing in between Yucatán and Cuba
	Last Edit: Aug 24, 2021 22:01:52 GMT -6 by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE IDA - Continuing Discussion

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 24, 2021 20:36:48 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Aug 24, 2021 20:36:50 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 20:38:30 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 24, 2021 20:41:41 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 20:43:02 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 20:46:07 GMT -6

Post by lowtide on Aug 24, 2021 20:49:04 GMT -6

Post by lowtide on Aug 24, 2021 20:54:37 GMT -6

Post by lilspud on Aug 24, 2021 20:55:17 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 21:00:29 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 21:03:21 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Aug 24, 2021 21:22:57 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 21:42:46 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 24, 2021 21:43:31 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 24, 2021 22:01:30 GMT -6

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