Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 24, 2021 20:36:48 GMT -6
This is going to be a big system, and those take more time to organize and it makes it harder to estimate where the center would end up being.
The steering certainly isn't what I want to see and the upper levels are absolutely very concerning, but there's still a huge range of possibilities because we can't nail much down until we nail down where the LLC ends up.
FWIW the extended for our area of SE LA calls for increased chance of showers and storms for Friday into Tuesday, in the 60 to 80 percent range. Would that mean there isn't much left of a ridge to spare us from any tropical mischief?
Good question. Basically our moisture comes from the Gulf. And when rain chances are high we are usually getting Gulf moisture/ flow. So to me, those elevated precip chances indicate a lack of strong ridging. Not what we want to see when something may be S of us.
Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Aug 24, 2021 20:41:41 GMT -6
Thanks grisairgasm just what I suspected.
These are the lines from the NWS extended that caught my eye.
LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) The central Gulf Coast region will remain situated in easterly flow to the southwest of the Bermuda ridge for much of the period. A parade of easterly shortwave disturbances rotating around the ridge will result in an unsettled weather pattern for the end of the week and beginning of next week. Undercut NBM PoPs by 10-20 percent for most days given the uncertainty in timing of any of these waves. However, PoPs are still high (60-80 percent) each day.
Know what really pisses me off about this already? Wherever this develops and goes, it’s gonna flood a lot of people who refuse to get flood insurance because they don’t live in a “flood zone”. Then we’re all going to have to watch news stories documenting how the victims just don’t know what they’re gonna do now, financially. Happens every single time. Even here in the BR area after all the floods since 2016 we still have people refusing to buy flood insurance then being wowed by how high the water gets. Nobody has any excuse to not have flood insurance unless you live at the tip top of a mountain.
No I will not donate to your trashy godundme page because my money is already spent on my insurance premiums.
End of rant.
Geez, and I was going to beg for money to go to Greece. Thanks a lot.
Kidding, of course. I agree and basically, if you live in south Louisiana, it's foolish not to have flood insurance - we have water fricking everywhere, including the largest River in the country. It's pretty inexpensive especially if you happen to flood and lose your home. Homeowners ain't gonna cover it.
As in the words of Aaron Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X. If the models still say this by Friday I will start to get concerned. If (and big IF) it comes to your area I would prepare early. I don't know if it is staff or supply chain issues but most grocery stores are already low on inventory. I can't imagine what it would look like after a hurricane rush.
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 24, 2021 21:00:29 GMT -6
I really thought a repeat ridge would be as initially forecast even earlier today. What bothers me is the ridge erosion being forecast to begin this far out. Making me give more credibility to the poleward solutions.