Post by hurricaner on Sept 20, 2021 5:37:50 GMT -6
The next wave in line is now Invest 98L.
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 5, 2021 6:47:45 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by hurricaner on Sept 20, 2021 11:48:41 GMT -6
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are still showing some signs of organization, although there does not appear to be a surface circulation at this time. Upper-level winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Last Edit: Sept 20, 2021 11:49:22 GMT -6 by hurricaner
GCWX Board Member
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Post by hurricaner on Sept 20, 2021 14:56:44 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS run has it as a major hurricane turning north between US and Bermuda due to a very large 500mb low over the south central US. However this way out in the forecast so a lot can change.
Last Edit: Sept 20, 2021 14:58:59 GMT -6 by hurricaner
The 12Z GFS run has it as a major hurricane turning north between US and Bermuda due to a very large 500mb low over the south central US. However this way out in the forecast so a lot can change.
I haven't looked so much at all on this one but I remember Dylan making a post saying this one may have to be watched in the long range.
Always have to keep an eye on MDR runners with potential to get going west enough to be trouble for the Gulf Coast but I think it'll have two windows to get north, and the faster it organizes the better.
I haven't looked so much at all on this one but I remember Dylan making a post saying this one may have to be watched in the long range.
Always have to keep an eye on MDR runners with potential to get going west enough to be trouble for the Gulf Coast but I think it'll have two windows to get north, and the faster it organizes the better.
Can you let me know what “MDR” stands for?
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Always have to keep an eye on MDR runners with potential to get going west enough to be trouble for the Gulf Coast but I think it'll have two windows to get north, and the faster it organizes the better.
Can you let me know what “MDR” stands for?
swapmeet MDR stands for "Main Development Region". Basically the long stretch of the Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Both the GEFS and ECENS indicate 98L will become Sam and could be a formidable storm. The GEFS show him missing the Bahamas, but the ECENS say hold up...maybe I want to visit the Bahamas.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by hurricaner on Sept 21, 2021 8:10:05 GMT -6
Showers and thunderstorms are currently somewhat limited associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Sept 21, 2021 8:10:41 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by hurricaner on Sept 21, 2021 11:52:38 GMT -6
A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is redeveloping along a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Sept 21, 2021 11:53:01 GMT -6 by hurricaner