Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Dec 20, 2022 21:19:44 GMT -6
From this afternoon's discussion from NWS Mobile:
Guidance remains in strong agreement on the arctic front
moving into the forecast area mid to late Thursday evening and
sweeping east of the region by early Friday morning. The best
upper level dynamics will be located well north of the area, but
the strength of the front may help to produce some showers along
or just ahead of the front. Temperatures will plummet in the wake
of the front with lows by Friday morning in the teens well inland
with 20s all the way to the coast. Many inland areas will struggle
to rise above freezing on Friday and even along and south of the
I-10 corridor only mid to upper 30s are forecast. This may still
be a bit generous and would not be surprised if the official
forecast may still be a few degrees too warm given the nature of
the low level cold air advection. Friday night lows are a bit
tricky as a secondary shortwave is forecast to approach from the
west overnight. This could spread some mid and high level clouds
across the area which could prevent temps from bottoming out even
further. MOS guidance from the GFS and Euro show lows in the low
to mid teens inland with upper teens all the way to the coast.
Given the potential for some cloud cover and the strong pressure
gradient keeping winds up, decided to keep the forecast "warmer"
than MOS and close to NBM. This still yields mid teens well inland
to around 20 along the coast. Bottom line is there will be a hard
freeze area wide and prolonged periods of below freezing
temperatures will continue through Christmas (see Long Term
Section below).
Just as important will be the bitter cold wind chills expected on
Friday. Winds will be strong and gusty, frequently gusting to over
30 mph. This will send wind chills into the single digits over
much of the area by Friday morning with below zero wind chills
possible far inland.
Hard Freeze Watches/Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories will become
necessary as we get closer to the event
Guidance remains in strong agreement on the arctic front
moving into the forecast area mid to late Thursday evening and
sweeping east of the region by early Friday morning. The best
upper level dynamics will be located well north of the area, but
the strength of the front may help to produce some showers along
or just ahead of the front. Temperatures will plummet in the wake
of the front with lows by Friday morning in the teens well inland
with 20s all the way to the coast. Many inland areas will struggle
to rise above freezing on Friday and even along and south of the
I-10 corridor only mid to upper 30s are forecast. This may still
be a bit generous and would not be surprised if the official
forecast may still be a few degrees too warm given the nature of
the low level cold air advection. Friday night lows are a bit
tricky as a secondary shortwave is forecast to approach from the
west overnight. This could spread some mid and high level clouds
across the area which could prevent temps from bottoming out even
further. MOS guidance from the GFS and Euro show lows in the low
to mid teens inland with upper teens all the way to the coast.
Given the potential for some cloud cover and the strong pressure
gradient keeping winds up, decided to keep the forecast "warmer"
than MOS and close to NBM. This still yields mid teens well inland
to around 20 along the coast. Bottom line is there will be a hard
freeze area wide and prolonged periods of below freezing
temperatures will continue through Christmas (see Long Term
Section below).
Just as important will be the bitter cold wind chills expected on
Friday. Winds will be strong and gusty, frequently gusting to over
30 mph. This will send wind chills into the single digits over
much of the area by Friday morning with below zero wind chills
possible far inland.
Hard Freeze Watches/Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories will become
necessary as we get closer to the event
