HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 3:55:55 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, trethe, and 4 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Aug 29, 2023 3:55:55 GMT -6 5am Video on Hurricane Idalia
	Last Edit: Aug 29, 2023 3:56:27 GMT -6 by Mike Naso

T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,707	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 4:47:36 GMT -6 Mike Naso likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Aug 29, 2023 4:47:36 GMT -6 Good work on the video, Mike! I like the ominous intro music.

Mike T.- Chackbay,La
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 5:00:46 GMT -6 via mobile nolasim, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 1 more like this

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Post by Mike T.- Chackbay,La on Aug 29, 2023 5:00:46 GMT -6

My parents and sister live in Statesboro Ga, right in the path. I know it will be weakened by then, but still it's worrisome. They are well inland and parents house up on a small hill, so not worried about them flooding... but house is surrounded by pine trees. I know I'm praying for them and all in its path, especially on the Fla gulf coast. Thanks for your prayers too!!!

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2023 5:02:10 GMT -6 by Mike T.- Chackbay,La

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 5:39:53 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Aug 29, 2023 5:39:53 GMT -6 She looks like she is heading a little East of the projected path.

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:00:21 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Aug 29, 2023 6:00:21 GMT -6 7:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 Location: 23.8°N 84.8°W Moving: N at 14 mph Min pressure: 977 mb Max sustained: 80 mph

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:03:19 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Aug 29, 2023 6:03:19 GMT -6 Remember... Always prepare for one category higher than is being forecasted.

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:05:47 GMT -6 T-man and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2023 6:05:47 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2023 5:39:53 GMT -6 loogaroo said:

She looks like she is heading a little East of the projected path.

If that's an eyewall trying to close up, I agree that she's east of model plots as well.

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shannalynn35
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:12:43 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by shannalynn35 on Aug 29, 2023 6:12:43 GMT -6

I’m wondering what you think of another east wobble? I’m just south of St. Pete in Bradenton and I know it looks like a Big Bend arrival but also curious if your expertise in another wobble east instead of west again.

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:15:04 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2023 6:15:04 GMT -6

Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDALIA STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2023 6:15:26 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

mary
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:21:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by mary on Aug 29, 2023 6:21:39 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2023 6:05:47 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Aug 29, 2023 5:39:53 GMT -6 loogaroo said:

She looks like she is heading a little East of the projected path.

If that's an eyewall trying to close up, I agree that she's east of model plots as well.

prairievilledog
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:43:00 GMT -6

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Post by prairievilledog on Aug 29, 2023 6:43:00 GMT -6

Looks like the pressure has dropped about 7 mbs from the last fix only an hour ago. That is a huge drop in pressure in only an hour. I am reading the Vortex message so that reading might be adjusted upward once its posted to Tropical Tidbits web site.

Correction: The Vortex message from the dropsonde reads surface pressure of 979mbs or the same value as the previous reading. Also the new center location is 24.0N 84.8W vs the last reading of 23.7N 84.7W so it jogged back west. Wobbles are visible when watching radar fixes so don't pay attention to a jog here or there only long term movement can be truly used as a trend in movement.

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2023 6:50:54 GMT -6 by prairievilledog

hurricaner Moderator Board Member Posts: 5,167 Staff Member	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:49:47 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2023 6:49:47 GMT -6 It is interesting to note that the GFS is about 10mbs too high on its forecast for Idalia at 7am. So if this continues at landfall the GFS has Idalia at 957mb so it could be as low as 947mb.
	GCWX Board Member

nolasim
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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 6:54:33 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 6:54:33 GMT -6

NHC in its 4:00 am disco mentions that indeed its track reflects east of much of the model guidance, at least during the wee hours.

"There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance."

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 7:03:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 7:03:29 GMT -6 There is a HUGE discrepancy in intensity forecasts between the EURO and the GFS, with the EURO having it at about 85 mph at landfall and the GFS going with the NHC's projection of 120 mph. Odd.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim
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Location: Algiers-West Bank

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HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2023 7:07:17 GMT -6 Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 7:07:17 GMT -6

EURO still has Idalia chasing after Franklin out into the Atlantic while GFS still has it doing the loop back into the Gulf as essentially a harmless nothing. Yeah, I'm awake and I've had my coffee.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 29, 2023 3:55:55 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Aug 29, 2023 4:47:36 GMT -6

Post by Mike T.- Chackbay,La on Aug 29, 2023 5:00:46 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Aug 29, 2023 5:39:53 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Aug 29, 2023 6:00:21 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Aug 29, 2023 6:03:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2023 6:05:47 GMT -6

Post by shannalynn35 on Aug 29, 2023 6:12:43 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2023 6:15:04 GMT -6

Post by mary on Aug 29, 2023 6:21:39 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Aug 29, 2023 6:43:00 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2023 6:49:47 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 6:54:33 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 7:03:29 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 29, 2023 7:07:17 GMT -6

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