HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread

Big NOLA sleepy yawn here. Wake me up with a center. 93L not even on the dream radar. Not impossible but certainly not likely at this point. Goodnight!

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Latest ensemble mean all still show the Florida Gulf Coast. We're seeing a nice blow up of persistent convection as low level convergence is starting to increase. There's an upper level high pressure situated just to the southwest of 93L. She still can't move to the north all that much yet due to the ridge still in place so we'll be waiting for the ridge to budge west which will allow our little cold front to swing south and pull her north.

She's cranking up nicely!

Almost looks like a closed COC just off the NE tip of the Yucatán.