Spring 2024 - General Discussion Thread | SVR WX Season '24
Apr 2, 2024 4:08:33 GMT -6
HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN and fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA like this
Post by kennethb on Apr 2, 2024 4:08:33 GMT -6
Snippet from this morning's AFD out of Fort Worth.
An active pattern will persist though and another large upper
trough will approach the West Coast by early Friday. In response,
lee troughing will lead to an abrupt wind direction change to the
south and moisture will steadily stream northward. By Saturday, an
axis of 60+ dewpoints will extend northward along and just west of
the I-35 corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline. As the
aforementioned upper trough quickly takes on a negative tilt and
ejects into the Plains, strong forcing for ascent will overspread
an eastward moving Pacific front/dryline. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely erupt throughout the Central and
Southern Plains into North Texas late Saturday and continue
eastward through Saturday night. A narrow axis of instability will
likely result in a few strong to severe storms, but
timing/location remains a little uncertain.
This fast moving system may prove beneficial to our much
anticipated solar eclipse on Monday as a substantial amount of dry
air will spread in behind the departing system on Sunday. A fast
moving shortwave ridge will quickly overspread the Plains late
Sunday into early Monday but this feature will dampen quickly as
yet another upstream trough will approach the Desert Southwest
sending a thick plume of Pacific moisture across the Southern
Plains on Monday. In addition, there will be a pool of 1.7-1.9"
PWs over the western Gulf which will get tapped into by
strengthening southerly winds and will likely result in thick low
cloud cover racing northward. Some of the latest model guidance
shows this occurring after eclipse time which would be
optimal...meaning we would potentially only have to contend with
high cloud cover. We`ll continue to refine this forecast over the
coming days but the latest information for the eclipse is below:
* Ensemble guidance is a little more optimistic with respect to
total cloud cover with probabilities increasing to around 20-25%
for favorable viewing conditions.
* Consensus of models currently shows that thick lower clouds may
hold off until after eclipse time which would be optimal.
* Probabilities remain high (>80%) that high clouds will be in
place across much of North and Central Texas during eclipse
time.
An active pattern will persist though and another large upper
trough will approach the West Coast by early Friday. In response,
lee troughing will lead to an abrupt wind direction change to the
south and moisture will steadily stream northward. By Saturday, an
axis of 60+ dewpoints will extend northward along and just west of
the I-35 corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline. As the
aforementioned upper trough quickly takes on a negative tilt and
ejects into the Plains, strong forcing for ascent will overspread
an eastward moving Pacific front/dryline. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely erupt throughout the Central and
Southern Plains into North Texas late Saturday and continue
eastward through Saturday night. A narrow axis of instability will
likely result in a few strong to severe storms, but
timing/location remains a little uncertain.
This fast moving system may prove beneficial to our much
anticipated solar eclipse on Monday as a substantial amount of dry
air will spread in behind the departing system on Sunday. A fast
moving shortwave ridge will quickly overspread the Plains late
Sunday into early Monday but this feature will dampen quickly as
yet another upstream trough will approach the Desert Southwest
sending a thick plume of Pacific moisture across the Southern
Plains on Monday. In addition, there will be a pool of 1.7-1.9"
PWs over the western Gulf which will get tapped into by
strengthening southerly winds and will likely result in thick low
cloud cover racing northward. Some of the latest model guidance
shows this occurring after eclipse time which would be
optimal...meaning we would potentially only have to contend with
high cloud cover. We`ll continue to refine this forecast over the
coming days but the latest information for the eclipse is below:
* Ensemble guidance is a little more optimistic with respect to
total cloud cover with probabilities increasing to around 20-25%
for favorable viewing conditions.
* Consensus of models currently shows that thick lower clouds may
hold off until after eclipse time which would be optimal.
* Probabilities remain high (>80%) that high clouds will be in
place across much of North and Central Texas during eclipse
time.
