Solar Eclipse Discussion - 2024!

The snippet from this morning's AFD:


Latest Eclipse Cloud Cover Information:

- Global ensembles have trended a little more pessimistic compared
to climatology with only around 40% of the members depicting
favorable sky conditions (<25% cloud cover).

- The synoptic pattern still favors troughing to the west which
will help maintain moist southerly flow in the low levels and a
steady stream of Pacific moisture aloft. This suggests that
morning stratus would be possible with a slow erosion through
the day.

We`re still 10 days out and forecast certainty is low at this
range so we`ll continue to refine this forecast over the coming
days.

Pivotal Weather now has a page specifically for the eclipse!

www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/

The eclipse snippet from this morning's Fort Worth NWS AFD:

weekend storm system will quickly eject into the Upper Midwest,
but the shortwave ridging in its wake will rapidly deamplify as
another upper low approaches Southern California. This will mean
pronounced southwesterly flow aloft on eclipse day, a pattern that
will encourage a dense plume of high clouds to blanket the skies.
At the surface, southerly return flow will ensue by Thursday, and
this south flow regime will still be in place on Monday. While
this would mean low clouds to begin the day, guidance continues to
allow for effective erosion within the northwest reaches of
totality, including the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. However, even
if this were to occur, the cirrus may be too thick to allow for
the eclipsed sun to be visible. While NBM PoPs continue to
increase for Monday, the main focus among perfect-prog guidance
remains from Central into East Texas. In addition, this activity
would be primarily after eclipse time.

In summary, the outlook for favorable viewing conditions continues
to deteriorate as the event approaches. NBM cloud probabilities
for clear or mostly clear skies are near zero, with <50% sky cover
being a 1 in 4 chance at best along the path of totality. As a
Fort Worth native and lifelong eclipsophile, this forecast is
soul-crushing. But having battled bad weather on previous eclipse
chases, I can assure you there are still incredible things to
experience even if the eclipsed sun isn`t visible:

- The darkening of the sky during totality is even more pronounced
with dense cloud cover, particularly if rain is also falling.

- The transition from a daytime sky to seemingly night (and vice
versa) occurs in a matter of seconds.

- If you have a high vantage point (tall building, hill, etc.),
the moon`s shadow can still be apparent as it approaches at more
than 1600 mph.

While this outlook is incredibly disappointing, all it takes is a
well-timed break in the clouds to allow for a magnificent view.
For example, rain and storms disrupted the 2017 eclipse in the
Kansas City area; but in the midst of the inclement weather, there
were some breaks in the clouds during totality.

Tuesday Afternoon Fort Worth AFD

As this system departs to the east, very dry air will overspread
North and Central Texas on Sunday, with a weak front sliding
through the area Sunday night. This has the potential to result in
more favorable viewing conditions for the total solar eclipse on
Monday. Latest guidance suggests we will most likely have to
contend with high cloud cover during the eclipse on Monday, with
the chance of low clouds a bit lower at this time. Given
completely clear skies are unlikely, high clouds would certainly
be the better outcome. Another system is currently expected to
arrive late Monday afternoon or evening, so the arrival of any
lower clouds may hold off until after the eclipse. However, given
Eclipse Day is still six days out, there is still considerable
uncertainty regarding timing of moisture return, rain/storm
chances, and low clouds. Don`t place all of your bets on one
forecast over the other, but also don`t lose hope on favorable
viewing conditions.

Here`s the latest probabilistic information for Eclipse Day:

*There is around a 40-70% chance for at least partial viewing
conditions (cloud cover < 50%).

*There is around a 15-30% chance for favorable viewing conditions
(cloud cover < 25%).

*Probabilities are still high (>80%) that we will have high
clouds across much of North and Central Texas. Exact thickness of
these high clouds is uncertain at this time.

Where? I’ll be in Tyler, TX that day.

Fort Worth AFT Wednesday Morning:

/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Clear skies are expected Thursday night and most of Friday as mid
level ridging will skirt through the Southern Plains. Friday will
be a warm day as southerly winds return and temperatures climb
into the lower 80s. The southerly winds will help spread a narrow
axis of better low level moisture northward along the I-35
corridor ahead of a fast moving, but potent shortwave spreading
out of the Desert Southwest. By Saturday afternoon, an axis of
60+ dewpoints will reside along and just west of I-35 through our
western counties. As the shortwave ejects into the Plains, strong
forcing for ascent will overspread an eastward moving dryline by
late afternoon. Thunderstorms should initially develop to our
north where the better forcing will be, but will eventually
develop farther south into North Texas by evening. While moisture
quality and resultant instability will be the main question with
respect to the severe threat, the overall synoptic pattern would
certainly support organized convection with a potential for severe
weather. We`ll continue to monitor this over the coming days.
This system will quickly move east Saturday night with a notable
dry slot spreading through the Southern Plains in its wake on
Sunday. This will certainly clear out any remaining cloud cover
across the region through Sunday night.

The much anticipated solar eclipse is on Monday, and the cloud
forecast continues to be challenging as the consensus of model
guidance has trended back slightly more pessimistic over the last
12 hours. Here`s a quick rundown of what we do know:

* There will almost certainly be thin high cloud cover at the
start of the day Monday and this will likely thicken some
through eclipse time across Central and North Texas. Probability
of high clouds right now is >80%.

* The models have trended a little farther north with the
disturbance that swings through on Saturday night/Sunday. This
has implications on the low level moisture headed into Monday as
it doesn`t have quite the eastward push as previously
indicated. This means that low cloud cover will likely be
present to start the day across southeast TX and along the
coast.

* This low cloud cover will likely spread north through the day
ahead of another strong disturbance and may be accompanied by
developing showers.

* Current probability of at least some viewability: 40% (chance of
mean cloud cover <50%)

* Current probability of optimal viewability: 10% (chance of mean
cloud cover <25%)

Low clouds are more likely across our Central Texas counties and
southeast Texas during eclipse time, with more favorable
conditions farther north and east. We`ll continue to refine this
forecast over the coming days.