2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024

Kory
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 19, 2024 14:14:13 GMT -6 via mobile campbreeze and darius Bogalusa like this

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Post by Kory on Aug 19, 2024 14:14:13 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2024 13:10:02 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

Aug 18, 2024 17:35:22 GMT -6 Kory said:

I’m just curious…we’re ranked top 5 in ACE to date for hurricane seasons on record. What constitutes a bust? We didn’t get a bunch of little bird fart storms in the subtropical Atlantic that lasted a day or two? I’ve always said named storm numbers don’t mean anything to me. 3 hurricanes to date with one cat 5 and 75% of the season to go climatologically. Oh, and all of those storms have hit land. Every single one.

Come on Kory, I get what your saying, but the way this season was hyped up you have to admit it was a little over the top..Im definitely not blaming or mocking anyone....And im not talking about social media hype....These were our experts....I am not the person to call anything hype....I mean if the Mets warn us, I take it as gospel....I know that all it takes is one...But that goes for EVERY hurricane season.....Some of the graphics that were displayed had people making evacuation plans in May LOL.....One guy made mention of the 2005 K storm season on steroids...LOL...Of course one storm can make this a memorable season....And I for one wouldn't be surprised if we have a threat in the near future.....But AS OF NOW, it's crickets....But yet we still have experts telling people "just wait it's about to get active"....well I hope the wait is long enough until we start getting our 50 degree mornings😆

But that’s where I’m legitimately confused. We ARE seeing the more active season by one metric (and the gold standard of metrics…ACE) as predicted. CSU also put out an ACE forecast (in addition to NS/H/MH numbers) and we’re about 25% and counting of their forecast of 200+ (Ernesto is still a hurricane and producing value toward that metric) with about 75-80% of the season left climatologically. So based on our season’s performance, we’re right on track. Sure, we don’t have the named storms that spin up for a day or two and are mostly devoid of convection that we see a lot of now….which I thought many people would be applauding the NHC for not naming every little swirl (ahem our first invest of the season I thought they’d pull the trigger but held off).

Last Edit: Aug 19, 2024 14:58:22 GMT -6 by Kory

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Kory
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 19, 2024 14:18:45 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal likes this

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Post by Kory on Aug 19, 2024 14:18:45 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2024 13:03:55 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Tomorrow at 2 pm the final forecast will be released. We will see if numbers are lowered or stay the same

I think it’s just a 2 week forecast. I don’t think they’re adjusting numbers anymore but I could be wrong.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

grisairgasm
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 19, 2024 15:58:29 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by grisairgasm on Aug 19, 2024 15:58:29 GMT -6

Fox 8 NOLA indicating we may have to watch the Gulf this weekend as a tropical wave interacts with the trough / front that has moved offshore. Development not that uncommon. We’ll at least need some rain by then.

Kory
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 19, 2024 16:27:44 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Kory on Aug 19, 2024 16:27:44 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2024 15:58:29 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Fox 8 NOLA indicating we may have to watch the Gulf this weekend as a tropical wave interacts with the trough / front that has moved offshore. Development not that uncommon. We’ll at least need some rain by then.

I needed rain at my house 2 weeks ago. 😫 Barely got any with the rain the last several days. Northerly flow events are not friendly to the south shore metro which largely missed out on anything.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Dutar76
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 20, 2024 5:32:58 GMT -6

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Post by Dutar76 on Aug 20, 2024 5:32:58 GMT -6

GFS finally comes alive and spins up another wave into a major hurricane in the MDR towards the end of the 6z run. It's another fish that threatens Bermuda, but it's something. Still crickets in the western Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf through Sept 5th.

Euro and ICON follows suit with a spin up towards the end of the month. Also looks like it'll end up staying out to sea.

Last Edit: Aug 20, 2024 5:36:58 GMT -6 by Dutar76

Kory
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 20, 2024 5:59:44 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by Kory on Aug 20, 2024 5:59:44 GMT -6

I'm still not convinced we don't see some sort of low pressure develop over the Gulf Sunday/Monday. Euro has a strengthening 850mb vort and 06z GEFS show several members developing into a weak system. But yes, the signal that waves rolling off of Africa will begin to develop is there. It was always going to show up...numerical models do not factor in the basin's increasing favorability due to climo. But as conditions continually improve towards peak season, the models will continue to adjust.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 20, 2024 6:56:14 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 20, 2024 6:56:14 GMT -6

I agree Kory, lots of convection will sit down there starting this weekend into next week. This entity could be a part of the switch flipping.

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,382 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 20, 2024 7:12:21 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 20, 2024 7:12:21 GMT -6 Right on bell ringing day August 20th. Funny how these things work
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

RowBear GCWX Supporter Posts: 525	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 20, 2024 9:41:31 GMT -6 marshwarden and redrover like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by RowBear on Aug 20, 2024 9:41:31 GMT -6 Things may be quiet for now, but we still haven't heard yet from Brunhilda, the zaftig Wagnerian soprano.
	Short-sleeve pants, no-sleeve shirt, bare-feet shoes = WARM GOOD / COLD BAD = SAY NO TO ICE AND SNOW !!!

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,382 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 6:40:07 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 21, 2024 6:40:07 GMT -6 I think it would be shocking 😮 if we get through the end of August without a named storm. Even the 1st part of September nothing really showing up. But I know things can change fast
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

nolasim
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 7:53:31 GMT -6 cajungal likes this

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Post by nolasim on Aug 21, 2024 7:53:31 GMT -6

Aug 21, 2024 6:40:07 GMT -6 cajungal said:

I think it would be shocking 😮 if we get through the end of August without a named storm. Even the 1st part of September nothing really showing up. But I know things can change fast

Here's hoping! Nothing of note showing up on either the EURO or the GFS through the end of the month.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

cajungal
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 8:00:00 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Aug 21, 2024 8:00:00 GMT -6

Aug 21, 2024 7:53:31 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Aug 21, 2024 6:40:07 GMT -6 cajungal said:

I think it would be shocking 😮 if we get through the end of August without a named storm. Even the 1st part of September nothing really showing up. But I know things can change fast

Here's hoping! Nothing of note showing up on either the EURO or the GFS through the end of the month.

Would be a blessing for sure but I still think I would be very surprised if that verified. How could so many forecasts for months upon Months be wrong?

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

nolasim
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 8:29:26 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa likes this

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Post by nolasim on Aug 21, 2024 8:29:26 GMT -6

Aug 21, 2024 8:00:00 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Aug 21, 2024 7:53:31 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Here's hoping! Nothing of note showing up on either the EURO or the GFS through the end of the month.

Would be a blessing for sure but I still think I would be very surprised if that verified. How could so many forecasts for months upon Months be wrong?

Your words "months upon months" nail it, I believe. Ever notice how the NWS has had trouble nailing forecasts a few days away let alone months? Now granted, hurricane forecasting is a different animal than day-to-day forecasting. However, as climate change is evolving, I think it's getting increasingly difficult for meteorologists to get a handle on accurate forecasting. This of course is a very amateur opinion, and of course I could be wrong. Yet, this was supposed to be the most hellacious hurricane season since 2020, and here we are on August 21st and it has been relatively quiet. I do not want to speak too soon of course; we could get a whole train wreck of storms coming our way in September. Yet so far, the season has been more reflective of 2023.

Now that I have posted this, I hope we don't start getting a massive train coming off of Africa just to spite me.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

cajungal
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 8:42:49 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal likes this

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Post by cajungal on Aug 21, 2024 8:42:49 GMT -6

Aug 21, 2024 8:29:26 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Aug 21, 2024 8:00:00 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Would be a blessing for sure but I still think I would be very surprised if that verified. How could so many forecasts for months upon Months be wrong?

Your words "months upon months" nail it, I believe. Ever notice how the NWS has had trouble nailing forecasts a few days away let alone months? Now granted, hurricane forecasting is a different animal than day-to-day forecasting. However, as climate change is evolving, I think it's getting increasingly difficult for meteorologists to get a handle on accurate forecasting. This of course is a very amateur opinion, and of course I could be wrong. Yet, this was supposed to be the most hellacious hurricane season since 2020, and here we are on August 21st and it has been relatively quiet. I do not want to speak too soon of course; we could get a whole train wreck of storms coming our way in September. Yet so far, the season has been more reflective of 2023.

Now that I have posted this, I hope we don't start getting a massive train coming off of Africa just to spite me.

I think that was what happened 2 years ago. People got complacent because nothing was showing on the models all of August and September. People were screaming season cancel. And out of nowhere Ian and we know how bad that one was for Florida

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

nolasim
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024 Aug 21, 2024 9:36:03 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Aug 21, 2024 9:36:03 GMT -6

Aug 21, 2024 8:42:49 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Aug 21, 2024 8:29:26 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Your words "months upon months" nail it, I believe. Ever notice how the NWS has had trouble nailing forecasts a few days away let alone months? Now granted, hurricane forecasting is a different animal than day-to-day forecasting. However, as climate change is evolving, I think it's getting increasingly difficult for meteorologists to get a handle on accurate forecasting. This of course is a very amateur opinion, and of course I could be wrong. Yet, this was supposed to be the most hellacious hurricane season since 2020, and here we are on August 21st and it has been relatively quiet. I do not want to speak too soon of course; we could get a whole train wreck of storms coming our way in September. Yet so far, the season has been more reflective of 2023.

Now that I have posted this, I hope we don't start getting a massive train coming off of Africa just to spite me.

I think that was what happened 2 years ago. People got complacent because nothing was showing on the models all of August and September. People were screaming season cancel. And out of nowhere Ian and we know how bad that one was for Florida

If nothing else, we're filling up a dead board somewhat.