TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO - Discussion Thread

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

It's not organized enough to be a tropical system. They just want to get the warning up so they issue a track/potential tropical cyclone declaration. It still isn't a storm though.

Green Canyon 433,LA (MKQ) ASOS reports gust of 50 knots (57.5 mph) from E @ 2215Z
KMKQ 182215Z AUTO 08035G50KT 1/2SM FG BKN022 BKN029 OVC035 27/26 A2977 RMK A01

The low pressure still remains fairly broad this morning. I do notice on satellite that convection is starting to ramp up in the SE quadrant and this could be enough for an upgrade later today if it can wrap a bit.