[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Looking at IR, Beryl is making his run at hurricane right now as we speak.

These incremental changes northward in some of these models can make one start to take notice. Weather is soooo dynamic. Specifically, hurricanes. I guess this is what makes them so interesting to track.

Looks like a fair number of tracks do get pulled north pulling the mean north as well. As Zack mentioned a smidge slow on the hurricane or a hair fast on the trough makes a huge difference.

LOVE IT TIM!!!

As the song says though... it aint there anymore.

Just a side note. I did love their fried oyster sandwich on toast and their pies. Very good.

Yes we now have hurricane Beryl.


HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024

2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Beryl is looking quite impressive with new hot towers wrapping around a developing eyewall this afternoon. It may have a bout of RI tonight.

Down the road...the steering pattern still has question marks past Day 5.

The line for whether this system becomes a risk for the northwest Gulf Coast or it's buried too deep in Mexico/southern Gulf is very thin on afternoon model guidance.

There are definitely a few models signaling the ridge attempting to shift east & weaken in about 7 days.

Hopefully, with more frequent aircraft recon missions over the next few days, modeling will begin to showcase more confidence in the strength of the high over the southeast U.S.

Certainly not comfortable writing anything off at this point, as multiple scenarios are still on the table.