[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

12z EURO brings Beryl to Mexico after the entering back into gulf. EURO certainly looks good for the U.S. gulf states (with this particular model). Like other's have mentioned, I am wondering why the models, including the 12z EURO, are so far off on their initiation pressure/strength. Makes one question the entire run's accuracy. 

It starts out with its' 18Z (1:00pm AST) position at 981mb. NHC has Beryl currently at 960mb as of 1:00PM AST.

GEFS only looks good for the Gulf Coast because it’s showing a 1000mb MSLP storm. Much different if it maintains strength across the Caribbean.

Yeah, HWRF, is a doozy and travels between Cuba and the Yucatan Pen. as a 943mb hurricane when in the channel and 949mb at the end. Quite a different result. from the EURO for certain.

Edited to add: The initiation of the HWRF was right on point with its' current intensity. Only off by 1mb (961mb) when compared with the NHC (960). Something to watch.

Beryl reminds me of Hurricane Allen which was an early August 1980, major hurricane. Beryl's projected path looks similar. Sorry, but I am unable to post an image.

12z Euro Ensembles certainly doesnt clear anything up....

The bulk do eventually head to Mexico.

Do any of these model runs initiate with the current pressure/intensity? If not they seem kinda worthless other than maybe looking at where the highs will be positioned in a 3-5 days.