[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

It will have to move due west soon to come close to the next forecast point.

I just watched Gary Lezak’s video. Incredible. I still don’t think this is our storm.

Yeah, agreed. As we get into the next 2-3 days, I'm sure we'll all be keeping a close watch on the NHC track updates and discussions.

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2024


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 63.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward
(290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is
expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the
hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.

Well there you have it- a slight adjustment northward of the track but still south of the TVCA. Yesterday there was a slight adjustment south. Seems to me we still have yet to find out what the overall pattern shall be. By end of week I'm sure we'll know.

1 minute scans as the sun gets closer to setting. She's just so damn perfect.