[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Ok, officially wishing (praying) for some windshear to knock this lady down before it reaches any landmass. She's made her point.

So catch me if I'm wrong now ---

The older ensemble runs with the bimodal distributions just pulled back together.

TLDR for TX/LA border is "if it just barely clips, or misses the Yucatan, hold onto your butts."

If it slams the Yucatan, not coming for the TX/LA border?.

Should know on Friday?

Ensembles still aren't initializing correctly. Does that render them useless?

I first started noticing a very small hint of a more northern trajectory after making landfall on the YP. But it was some 7-8 days out so really I did not put a lot of merit to it. Now here we are some 48hrs later and now the forecast period post YP landfall is getting closer. The more northerly turn after the YP is becoming more interesting (concerning). But again I go back to what I stated on Saturday.

I would like to see Beryl pass a decent distance south of Jamaica and NOT directly impacting Jamaica or worse passing between Jamaica and Cuba. At this time I am still concerned with Beryl’s unrelenting WNW movement at an unreal speed. The speed st which Beryl is moving is both good and bad. Good in the sense it may reach a point where any major northerly move will be too late to impact any U.S. coast. The bad is the steering pattern is very well established meaning Beryl will unlikely deviate much from its current 290 heading. All said we can hope from a timing standpoint it out runs to a critical point of say no chance for a dramatic turn northward in any way due to the timing of the impending trough. We shall see soon enough.

That is what I really enjoy seeing from SKY!