[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

lsuhurricane Category 2 Posts: 552	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 10:55:07 GMT -6 trethe and darius Bogalusa like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 10:55:07 GMT -6 Easy to see how the members round the high pressure clockwise and eventually get tugged towards the northeast by the trough moving through Texas.

T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,707	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 10:56:17 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and darius Bogalusa like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Jul 2, 2024 10:56:17 GMT -6 'm thinking it will end up on the north side of Jamaica if the slight westerly turn does not occur soon.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,604 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:01:46 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Jul 2, 2024 11:01:46 GMT -6 Big thunderstorms continue to fire around the center and wrap around. That tells me is it not heavily sheared. Likely light shear combined with some drier air but nothing that is severely weakening it yet.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:13:19 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by hurricaner on Jul 2, 2024 11:13:19 GMT -6

There just a small amount of weakening or levelly off since is up to 944mb. Also notice the west outer rainband did appear to fall apart including a sfc outflow which shows collapsing thunderstorms. However the CDO still remains solid with very strong thunderstorms.

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Dutar76
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:16:42 GMT -6

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Post by Dutar76 on Jul 2, 2024 11:16:42 GMT -6

Jul 2, 2024 11:01:46 GMT -6 Kory said:

Big thunderstorms continue to fire around the center and wrap around. That tells me is it not heavily sheared. Likely light shear combined with some drier air but nothing that is severely weakening it yet.

Didn't Beryl go through an ERC? I thought I had read that. If so, pretty impressive that it maintained a Cat-5.
I thought that might have been the reason it started looking a little ragged. .

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:28:07 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 2, 2024 11:28:07 GMT -6 All I want to know is what is Zack's LRC saying

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:30:35 GMT -6 via mobile T-man likes this

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Jul 2, 2024 11:30:35 GMT -6

Jul 2, 2024 10:56:17 GMT -6 T-man said:

View Attachment'm thinking it will end up on the north side of Jamaica if the slight westerly turn does not occur soon.

It’s going to be close, T-man. When I extrapolate current movement (last 60 frames) it looks to hit on the south and west side of Jamaica. I’m hoping it takes that westerly turn soon also.

Last Edit: Jul 2, 2024 11:31:32 GMT -6 by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:38:04 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:38:04 GMT -6

Down to a Cat 4:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

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NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,618 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:43:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:43:29 GMT -6 Per the 2pm Advisory, Here are the approximate earliest arrival times of tropical storm force conditions:
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:57:06 GMT -6

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Post by Kory on Jul 2, 2024 11:57:06 GMT -6

Euro landfalls on the Yucatan at 996mb and emerges in the Bay of Campeche as a 1002 mb tropical storm. Thus, it continues westward into Mexico. It all hinges on the strength of Beryl at landfall on the Yucatan and thus, we won't have a good idea of that until it clears Jamaica.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,618 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 11:59:46 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:59:46 GMT -6 12z GEFS
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lsuhurricane
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 12:01:12 GMT -6

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Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 12:01:12 GMT -6

Jul 2, 2024 11:57:06 GMT -6 Kory said:

Euro landfalls on the Yucatan at 996mb and emerges in the Bay of Campeche as a 1002 mb tropical storm. Thus, it continues westward into Mexico. It all hinges on the strength of Beryl at landfall on the Yucatan and thus, we won't have a good idea of that until it clears Jamaica.

12z initialized 7 mb higher than 6z said it would be at this time. (981mb vs 974mb).

Dont have alot of confidence in it right now.

ETA: the 12z HWRF run is going to scare quite a few folks including the GOM

Last Edit: Jul 2, 2024 12:02:58 GMT -6 by lsuhurricane

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 12:09:54 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 12:09:54 GMT -6

Jul 2, 2024 12:01:12 GMT -6 lsuhurricane said:

Jul 2, 2024 11:57:06 GMT -6 Kory said:

Euro landfalls on the Yucatan at 996mb and emerges in the Bay of Campeche as a 1002 mb tropical storm. Thus, it continues westward into Mexico. It all hinges on the strength of Beryl at landfall on the Yucatan and thus, we won't have a good idea of that until it clears Jamaica.

12z initialized 7 mb higher than 6z said it would be at this time. (981mb vs 974mb).

Dont have alot of confidence in it right now.

ETA: the 12z HWRF run is going to scare quite a few folks including the GOM

I haven't looked yet

The 12z HMON pretty much just goes on a straight line from here on out through the YUC and into MX. Is the HMON used much any longer? It used to be the GFDL back in the Katrina days.

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CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

lsuhurricane Category 2 Posts: 552	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 12:22:42 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 12:22:42 GMT -6 I haven't looked yet Hard to look away.....

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 2, 2024 12:22:57 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Jul 2, 2024 12:22:57 GMT -6 Watching the IR and Visible satellite loops of Beryl and she is just moving so fast. She looks like she is just putting her head down and barreling through like a bowling ball. Amazing to watch.

[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 10:55:07 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Jul 2, 2024 10:56:17 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 2, 2024 11:01:46 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 2, 2024 11:13:19 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Jul 2, 2024 11:16:42 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 2, 2024 11:28:07 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Jul 2, 2024 11:30:35 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:38:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:43:29 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 2, 2024 11:57:06 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 11:59:46 GMT -6

Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 12:01:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2024 12:09:54 GMT -6

Post by lsuhurricane on Jul 2, 2024 12:22:42 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jul 2, 2024 12:22:57 GMT -6

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