[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Not loving Beryl's resistance to weakening tonight in the presence of 20-25+knts of wind shear...this could be the strongest storm since Gilbert 1988 to strike Jamaica.

Incrementally the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the center-line track and cone of uncertainty to the north...with latest landfall just south of the U.S./Mexico border. 

This also stood out to me in the 11PM discussion "There is significant uncertainty in the 4-and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in the ridge. There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of Beryl."

Bottom line...If you’re watching from far western Louisiana to southeast Texas, I would be very cautiously watching the next few days as guidance tightens up on a solution.

A stronger Beryl after crossing the Yucatan could be tugged more northwest towards Texas, feeling the approaching trough to the north.

A weaker Beryl would likely be steered more west between Tampico, MX and Brownsville, TX, riding the lower-level steering flow.

So...let's keep optimism for the 7,500ft mountains of Jamaica to help disrupt the system.