[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 5:46:12 GMT -6 via mobile Dutar76 and Nola Mike like this

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Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 5:46:12 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 5:40:22 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Haven't seen mention, but EURO takes it much further south than the GFS into Mexico.

Yep it also shows it weakening to near dissipation (about 1004 mb) while in the Bay of Campeche. It did the same with Beryl early on. Complete whiff on intensity through the Lesser Antilles. I just don’t buy it.

NHC conditioning people before a big holiday this is going to be a tropical storm or low end hurricane in the Western Gulf while much guidance shows complete opposite nearing Cat 3 strength.

Last Edit: Jul 3, 2024 5:48:31 GMT -6 by Kory

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 5:49:41 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 3, 2024 5:49:41 GMT -6

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JAMAICA BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

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Kory
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 5:52:17 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and Dutar76 like this

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Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 5:52:17 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 5:49:41 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JAMAICA BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

Surprised they went that high with pressure. Recon extrap supports 947/948. Dropsonde in eye with 11kt winds shows 953mb so it’s probably closer to 950mb. Splitting hairs but whatever.

Last Edit: Jul 3, 2024 5:57:26 GMT -6 by Kory

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Dutar76
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:03:15 GMT -6 chloe06 and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this

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Post by Dutar76 on Jul 3, 2024 6:03:15 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 5:52:17 GMT -6 Kory said:

Jul 3, 2024 5:49:41 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JAMAICA BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

Surprised they went that high with pressure. Recon extrap supports 947/948. Dropsonde in eye with 11kt winds shows 953mb so it’s probably closer to 950mb. Splitting hairs but whatever.

Probably because she's ugly.

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and lindaluling like this

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Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6

Skimming just to the south of Jamaica while keeping its core pretty intact should lead to some additional strengthening upon approach to the Yucatan. Seems like the worst shear is currently and will be backing off and will orient itself more perpendicular to movement instead of head on.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

trethe
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:24:54 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by trethe on Jul 3, 2024 6:24:54 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 5:25:12 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Both the HMON and HWRF are rolling right now.

HWRF ends with a well-developed 957mb Hurricane Beryl. Roughly 27N 95W.

HMON brings her well south into Mexico as a 980mb Hurricane.

Last Edit: Jul 3, 2024 6:40:59 GMT -6 by trethe

frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:31:30 GMT -6 trethe likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Jul 3, 2024 6:31:30 GMT -6 H126 and moving NNW/NW as it approaches the TX coast

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:46:11 GMT -6 trethe, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this

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Post by ndg on Jul 3, 2024 6:46:11 GMT -6

S TX still needs to watch Beryl out, models are trending on improving conditions when it gets into GOM and any further strengthening it can make it feel the weakness to north to get closer to S TX.
Let me remind everyone that the Euro has been very inconsistent on its forecast strength for Beryl.

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 6:56:30 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Jul 3, 2024 6:56:30 GMT -6

The low level interaction with the mountains of Jamaica will probably offset the low circulation for a bit as it tries to avoid the friction of the terrain. It won't be perfectly stacked again until it passes the island.

Last Edit: Jul 3, 2024 7:40:08 GMT -6 by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59

T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,707	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:13:52 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, flora... Covington, near CHS, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Jul 3, 2024 7:13:52 GMT -6 Here is a link to the Kingston city webcam, southeast side of Jamaica. www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/jamaica/surrey-county/kingston/panorama.html

homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:14:58 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by homeymandeville on Jul 3, 2024 7:14:58 GMT -6

Looking at the latest IR loop of Beryl I can see how the inner core to her west, north and south are expanding pretty quickly. The east side is lagging behind the three quadrants I mentioned. This tellls me the shear from the west is having very little impact on Beryl at this time.

I wonder what type of upper level wind flow speed Beryl is seeing ATM? I am willing to bet very minimal.

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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:20:42 GMT -6

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Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 7:20:42 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 7:14:58 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

Looking at the latest IR loop of Beryl I can see how the inner core to her west, north and south are expanding pretty quickly. The east side is lagging behind the three quadrants I mentioned. This tellls me the shear from the west is having very little impact on Beryl at this time.

I wonder what type of upper level wind flow speed Beryl is seeing ATM? I am willing to bet very minimal.

Total shear is about 15-20kts. Not optimal but clearly not degrading it to the point of significant weakening.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

lsukev4 GCWX Supporter Posts: 623	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:23:42 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsukev4 on Jul 3, 2024 7:23:42 GMT -6 “Creating its own environment” Has that cliche been used yet?
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:33:52 GMT -6 T-man likes this

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Post by ndg on Jul 3, 2024 7:33:52 GMT -6

Jul 3, 2024 7:13:52 GMT -6 T-man said:

Here is a link to the Kingston city webcam, southeast side of Jamaica. www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/jamaica/surrey-county/kingston/panorama.html

I rode from Kingston Jamaica to Ocho Rios a few years ago, lots of houses several hundred feet up in the hills surrounding the city and along the southern coast, they will see the highest winds and most devastation if the northern eyewall goes inland.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,607 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jul 3, 2024 7:34:53 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 7:34:53 GMT -6 Recon shows beryl holding steady. No weakening since early passes.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 5:46:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 3, 2024 5:49:41 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 5:52:17 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Jul 3, 2024 6:03:15 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jul 3, 2024 6:24:54 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Jul 3, 2024 6:31:30 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 3, 2024 6:46:11 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Jul 3, 2024 6:56:30 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Jul 3, 2024 7:13:52 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jul 3, 2024 7:14:58 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 7:20:42 GMT -6

Post by lsukev4 on Jul 3, 2024 7:23:42 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 3, 2024 7:33:52 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jul 3, 2024 7:34:53 GMT -6

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