[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Perhaps the NHC is getting sufficient data to get a clearer picture? This from the 4:00 p.m. disco. Forecaster Beven has been around awhile btw.

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WTNT42 KNHC 032047
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of
the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the
eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in
satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any
re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be
held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance
aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is
brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane
conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island.

The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the
Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl
should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this
cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the
ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and
other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a
little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there
is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a
landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next
several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight.
Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience
destructive wind gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should
monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven