Post by nolasim on Jul 5, 2024 15:16:35 GMT -6
I’m amazed by the persistence and quantity of viewers on the forum following this storm. Looks like many of us have enjoyed another partaking of tropical history! I have the feeling a few more “jaw drops” are in order down the road. Tenacious is what I think of Beryl and probably the season as a whole. Intensification forecasts just remain so problematic. It’s just a matter of time until a weaker storm bombs out literally overnight right outside a major urban area.
Even with all the most advanced technology, intensity is still the most difficult thing to predict.
Ironically, in their 4:00 a.m. discussion, the NHC mentioned that intensity forecast was straightforward for about the next 12-24 hours while the track was more difficult to ascertain.
This from the 4:00 a.m. discussion:
"Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
The intensity forecast for the next 24 hours is straightforward, as
the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after
it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the
intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of
time for Beryl's convective structure to recover in the Gulf of
Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly
shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows
shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses
29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor
strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the
hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less
intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating
between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity
forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior
advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but
more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl
approaches landfall.
the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after
it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the
intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of
time for Beryl's convective structure to recover in the Gulf of
Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly
shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows
shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses
29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor
strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the
hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less
intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating
between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity
forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior
advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but
more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl
approaches landfall.