[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Dutar76
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 861

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:13:17 GMT -6 trethe and brandalyn74 like this

Quote

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 7, 2024 7:13:17 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:03:03 GMT -6 ndg said:

Sept 7, 2024 3:29:45 GMT -6 trethe said:

Most, if not all, the models are showing development of this system to some degree and bringing it north (in varying degrees of direction). FWIW...The NAVGEM (not favored and considered unreliable by some) is surprisingly the most aggressive on its' 0z run showing pressure around 976/977mb with landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border on Wednesday.

ICON IS WITHOUT A QUESTION THE WINNER IN THIS (to this point), IN MY OPINION...

I think its over aggressiveness with development might have made it look like the winner. Back on the 29th-31st it had 90L making landfall this past Thursday as a strong TS and the cold front passing through almost through the entire gulf with no development after that.
On the 1st is when it started with 90L not making landfall before the cold front/trough, then keeping 90L intact making the loop in the BOC, but clearly that will not happen, it will be absorbed by the TW entering the BOC.

So roughly a week out, it may have had the big picture right, but the details wrong... and sold a few cases of Easy-Cheese and crackers in the process.

This has been a heck of a week+ of model watching. 90L, future 91L, the Caribbean wave becoming a monster on the norther gulf coast before that. Almost filled my 6" rain gauge this week and had the first inkling of fall at the football game last night. And we still have a few days to go.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,377	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:13:23 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 7, 2024 7:13:23 GMT -6 And just think if we didn’t have shear or dry air. With this being still early September this would have been likely real bad for us.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

frankp
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 592

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:19:27 GMT -6

Quote

Post by frankp on Sept 7, 2024 7:19:27 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:10:12 GMT -6 ndg said:

GFS shows 30 knots of shear over future 91L before making landfall over the northern gulf that may make it get some subtropical characteristics but we know how that goes, many times when tropical systems track parallel to the mid to UL winds the windshear kind of cancels out some, we have seen this happen before with the tropical system outperforming. 91L will have a good 4 days over the gulf before making landfall to really organize before making landfall.

NDG, didn't the windshear have a positive effect on Hurricane Zeta, just can't remember if it is similar to this set up.

frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:29:28 GMT -6 trethe and saetyl like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Sept 7, 2024 7:29:28 GMT -6 INVEST 91L on the board

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:31:31 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 7, 2024 7:31:31 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:19:27 GMT -6 frankp said:

Sept 7, 2024 7:10:12 GMT -6 ndg said:

GFS shows 30 knots of shear over future 91L before making landfall over the northern gulf that may make it get some subtropical characteristics but we know how that goes, many times when tropical systems track parallel to the mid to UL winds the windshear kind of cancels out some, we have seen this happen before with the tropical system outperforming. 91L will have a good 4 days over the gulf before making landfall to really organize before making landfall.

NDG, didn't the windshear have a positive effect on Hurricane Zeta, just can't remember if it is similar to this set up.

Zeta was later in the season too. The certainty of a ST type of system for this event is a bit premature.

roz GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,192	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:33:00 GMT -6 trethe, frankp, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by roz on Sept 7, 2024 7:33:00 GMT -6 Sept 7, 2024 7:29:28 GMT -6 frankp said: INVEST 91L on the board Yep. Now we can get some hurricane model runs.

larcat
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 49

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6 saetyl, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by larcat on Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6

Just want to make sure I'm reading all this correctly.

Broad model agreement on a depression+ hitting somewhere between TX/LA border and NOLA sometime dead midweek this upcoming week?

Only real disagreement is intensity?

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 780

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:34:59 GMT -6 via mobile saetyl likes this

Quote

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 7, 2024 7:34:59 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6 larcat said:

Just want to make sure I'm reading all this correctly.

Broad model agreement on a depression+ hitting somewhere between TX/LA border and NOLA sometime dead midweek this upcoming week?

Only real disagreement is intensity?

You are correct

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:35:35 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 7, 2024 7:35:35 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6 larcat said:

Just want to make sure I'm reading all this correctly.

Broad model agreement on a depression+ hitting somewhere between TX/LA border and NOLA sometime dead midweek this upcoming week?

Only real disagreement is intensity?

I think this is safe to say being true.

Last Edit: Sept 7, 2024 7:35:48 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

larcat GCWX Supporter Posts: 49	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:37:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by larcat on Sept 7, 2024 7:37:12 GMT -6 Thanks to you both.

Dutar76
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 861

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:37:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 7, 2024 7:37:32 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6 larcat said:

Just want to make sure I'm reading all this correctly.

Broad model agreement on a depression+ hitting somewhere between TX/LA border and NOLA sometime dead midweek this upcoming week?

Only real disagreement is intensity?

Looks like the 06z Euro jumped off the bandwagon. But yes, pretty decent model agreement even before invest was declared.

swla6
Tropical Storm

Posts: 96

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:45:31 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by swla6 on Sept 7, 2024 7:45:31 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2024 7:37:32 GMT -6 Dutar76 said:

Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6 larcat said:

Just want to make sure I'm reading all this correctly.

Broad model agreement on a depression+ hitting somewhere between TX/LA border and NOLA sometime dead midweek this upcoming week?

Only real disagreement is intensity?

Looks like the 06z Euro jumped off the bandwagon. But yes, pretty decent model agreement even before invest was declared.

The 06 Euro AI has it going in east of vermilion bay. Idk what the difference is between the regular Euro and the Euro AI but they are on opposite sides

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:46:53 GMT -6 wroophus and trueblue like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 7, 2024 7:46:53 GMT -6 I am just ready for the smell of sugarcane burning in the fields and pumpkin spiced latte.

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:59:13 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 7, 2024 7:59:13 GMT -6 At least those models showing development of this system look fairly manageable (at the time anyway).

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,377	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 7, 2024 7:59:14 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish and 22amillion like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 7, 2024 7:59:14 GMT -6 I am waiting for all the but will schools be closed posts? And parents getting angry either way
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 7, 2024 7:13:17 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 7, 2024 7:13:23 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 7, 2024 7:19:27 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 7, 2024 7:29:28 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 7, 2024 7:31:31 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 7, 2024 7:33:00 GMT -6

Post by larcat on Sept 7, 2024 7:33:47 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 7, 2024 7:34:59 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 7, 2024 7:35:35 GMT -6

Post by larcat on Sept 7, 2024 7:37:12 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 7, 2024 7:37:32 GMT -6

Post by swla6 on Sept 7, 2024 7:45:31 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 7, 2024 7:46:53 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 7, 2024 7:59:13 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 7, 2024 7:59:14 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings