[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

My wife’s family are all in Thibodaux.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
605 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

1 - NHC is beginning advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to
become a tropical storm in the next day or two as it begins to
move northward, and could strengthen into a hurricane before
making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast of southeastern
Texas or Louisiana.

2 - While specific impacts will depend on the eventual track and
structure (size, intensity, etc) of the storm, locally heavy
rain and minor to moderate coastal flooding appear to be the
greatest threats to SE LA and S MS at this time, with the
greatest threat being during the Wednesday and Thursday time
frame.

3 - Keep in mind that because this storm currently lacks a defined
center of circulation, there could still be relatively large
shifts in the forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest impact-
based forecast updates from NHC/NWS and other reliable sources.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Upper low over Quebec and New England with a trough southwestward
into Arkansas and Texas. Upper ridging over the Rockies.
Additionally, there is a tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico that we will be keeping our eyes on.
Frontal boundary that brought the drier air into the area looks to
already be drifting northward off the southeast Louisiana coast.
In the drier air, with a lot of sunshine this afternoon,
temperatures ranged from the mid 80s to lower 90s, but generally
without the mid-summer type humidity.

In the short term, we'll see the frontal boundary drifting
northward over the next 36 hours with rain likely moving into the
southeast Louisiana coastal parishes late tomorrow morning or
afternoon. May be a few rumbles of thunder tomorrow afternoon or
tomorrow night, but those should be the exception to the rule.

Northern portions of the area should be on the cool side overnight
tonight with a few locations possible falling to around 60 or
below. With the additional clouds tomorrow and tomorrow night,
highs will remain in the 80s tomorrow and be in the more usual 70
to 75 range tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

The midweek weather and related impacts, especially Wednesday
into Thursday, will be highly dependent on the eventual track and
strength of PTC 6. Rain looks to be a virtual certainty for much
or all of the area, and coastal flooding will likely be an issue
with wind strength and direction being the determining factor on
the most vulnerable areas. Those details will need to be adjusted
as the confidence in the strength and track of the system
increases.

Regardless of PTC 6, Tuesday looks to be rather wet, especially
along the coast. We may need flood watches (hydrologic and/or
coastal) as early as Tuesday or Tuesday night as much of the area
south of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors is pretty water-
logged at this point.

Less impactful (drier) weather is anticipated for next weekend
behind PTC 6.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals. Cirrus shield is
returning north rather quickly, and we are also seeing some clouds
around FL050 as lower level moisture also returns. We do expect
VFR conditions for most of the night, but MVFR ceilings could
return to southern terminals prior to sunrise.

Expect a mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings during the morning
hours, with MVFR becoming more prevalent during the afternoon.
Light precipitation should spread northward during the afternoon
to terminals south of Interstate 10. Will carry prevaling MVFR
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

Man, that is some intense convection down in the Bay of Campeche. Even though diurnal minimum...maybe a sign we'll see the system overperform. Just a hunch.

I'm in Houma. Keeping a close eye on this one. I remember viewing a map years ago that showed the potential flooding if a major hurricane came in from the southwest with the center passing over Morgan City. Not good at all.

Probably but does not "have to  be". If the center eventually verifies more to the west of their initial guestimate the track, and landfall could possibly shift further to the west.

Per NHC. "though the center could reform or redevelop (anywhere)


along the current trough axis as the center becomes better defined."

Has coastal Louisiana had a hurricane come from the south west?

I can't think of any off the top of my head, I am sure they are rare.