[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

gulfbreeze
Category 3

Posts: 619

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:21:48 GMT -6 SouthwestLa Vermilion Parish and tempetetigre82 like this

Quote

Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 9, 2024 19:21:48 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:11:43 GMT -6 atomicfrawg said:

Sept 9, 2024 19:05:55 GMT -6 marshwarden said:

Lafayette is in Vermillion Parish.

Lafayette is in Lafayette Parish. Vermillion Parish is south/ south west of lafayette Parish

Vermilion also has only one "l" not two - it's where I live.

Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,973
Member is Online

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:24:31 GMT -6 Nola Mike likes this

Quote

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:24:31 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:20:18 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

Sept 9, 2024 19:19:08 GMT -6 ndg said:

A closer look at all the latest 0z Hurricane models, except for the useless TABs models.
NHC track is to the left of most reliable models.

You think that will change next advisory?

I am sure, they never should had moved it so quickly to begin with just because of one set of runs, the track would had remained the same all day, lol.

schexstorm Tropical Low Posts: 20 Location: New Iberia	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:25:29 GMT -6 via mobile gulfbreeze and tempetetigre82 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by schexstorm on Sept 9, 2024 19:25:29 GMT -6 Lafayette is in Lafayette parish.

ju GCWX Supporter Posts: 701	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:26:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ju on Sept 9, 2024 19:26:05 GMT -6 What are all of those white thingees feeing into Francine? Is that moisture? Sorry for the dumb question. imgur.com/a/lZ6AyOq

neworleansmike Category 1 Posts: 387	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:29:07 GMT -6 via mobile tony2001 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by neworleansmike on Sept 9, 2024 19:29:07 GMT -6 Dry air is really doing a number on Francine ....does she even bounce back ?
	Last Edit: Sept 9, 2024 19:29:23 GMT -6 by neworleansmike

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:33:49 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:33:49 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:29:07 GMT -6 neworleansmike said:

Dry air is really doing a number on Francine ....does she even bounce back ?

I think that is false. If you go back and see there was a post from ndg about that dry air assumption. It was according to real data from the HH’s not satellite imagery.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2024 19:34:32 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

nolasim
Moderator

Posts: 6,928
Location: Algiers-West Bank

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:34:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by nolasim on Sept 9, 2024 19:34:21 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:29:07 GMT -6 neworleansmike said:

Dry air is really doing a number on Francine ....does she even bounce back ?

We can fantasize that she does not. It has indeed been a season of surprises.

I seem to recall when I looked at the modeling yesterday that this was kinda/sorta forecast, that it would weaken some on its way northward then re-strengthen. I didn't want to mention it at the time because it seemed trivial, but perhaps this is part of the overall forecast.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,600 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:36:05 GMT -6 SouthwestLa Vermilion Parish and tony2001 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 19:36:05 GMT -6 Faster intensification according to the GFS is not until tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. It drops from 989 to 972 during that time frame.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,973 Member is Online	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:39:15 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA, homeymandeville, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:39:15 GMT -6 HAFS-B has been persistent that deep convection will not return to its CoC until tomorrow morning. We shall see.

geauxtigers
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 24

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:42:13 GMT -6 via mobile HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN, Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA, and 17 more like this

Quote

Post by geauxtigers on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:13 GMT -6

I don’t post much, but I’ve refreshed this thread about 100 times today. I love all the information available here. I’m a WWL forum left over.

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:42:20 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:20 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:35:07 GMT -6 tony2001 said:

You can see on satellite and radar, dry air is inside the core of the storm. It has to work that out and I have to believe that will slow any strengthening. Is there a different take? What do you think?

Lower level of the atmosphere is what you are refering to. If you look at the mid level and upper level moisture fields you will see there is abundant moisture. Probably tomorrow you will see all 3 levels fill in and that is when the forecast calls for intensification.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2024 19:44:05 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

Nathan Category 1 Posts: 125	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:42:25 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nathan on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:25 GMT -6 Really hoping the dry air gets sucked into this thing! Attachments:

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:44:55 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:44:55 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 19:43:09 GMT -6 tony2001 said:

Sept 9, 2024 19:36:05 GMT -6 Kory said:

Faster intensification according to the GFS is not until tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. It drops from 989 to 972 during that time frame.

That blowup of convection NE of it worries me.

Yep

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,973
Member is Online

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:48:16 GMT -6 lisamath and homeymandeville like this

Quote

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:48:16 GMT -6

Francine has a nice tight pressure gradient despite the lack of large deep convection, once it fires deep convection that's when it should get back to strengthening. Latest SHIPS is still persistent high chances of Rapid Intensification over next 36 hours.

RNT15 KNHC 100141
AF302 0606A FRANCINE HDOB 29 20240910
013300 2422N 09544W 8427 01501 0013 +172 //// 112034 035 031 010 01
013330 2421N 09546W 8429 01498 9992 +205 +153 127037 039 034 007 00
013400 2420N 09547W 8433 01490 9989 +207 +152 126037 037 033 005 00
013430 2418N 09548W 8424 01496 9990 +197 +160 122038 039 033 005 00
013500 2417N 09550W 8429 01487 9988 +190 +177 117041 041 034 006 00
013530 2416N 09551W 8427 01485 9984 +186 +185 113042 044 038 004 00
013600 2415N 09552W 8427 01482 9979 +191 +174 119047 049 041 002 00
013630 2413N 09554W 8429 01474 9974 +190 +172 119049 049 041 002 00
013700 2412N 09555W 8427 01473 9972 +187 +176 117047 049 040 003 00
013730 2411N 09556W 8428 01466 9964 +189 +180 120046 048 041 003 00
013800 2410N 09558W 8426 01461 9947 +205 +186 126038 044 043 003 00
013830 2409N 09559W 8435 01450 9939 +217 +177 134029 034 043 002 00
013900 2407N 09600W 8425 01456 9931 +227 +164 142027 029 043 002 00
013930 2406N 09601W 8433 01446 9926 +228 +172 148024 025 039 001 00
014000 2405N 09602W 8424 01451 9922 +226 +177 152017 022 030 001 00
014030 2404N 09604W 8428 01444 9917 +231 +168 135012 016 023 001 00
014100 2403N 09605W 8425 01445 9920 +221 +177 112002 009 012 000 00
014130 2401N 09605W 8425 01449 9919 +225 +183 279005 009 014 000 00
014200 2400N 09606W 8431 01444 9919 +229 +184 293011 012 014 000 00
014230 2359N 09607W 8432 01445 9921 +232 +179 293015 017 013 000 00

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 19:49:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Sept 9, 2024 19:49:20 GMT -6 Is there any shear coming from the East currently?

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 9, 2024 19:21:48 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:24:31 GMT -6

Post by schexstorm on Sept 9, 2024 19:25:29 GMT -6

Post by ju on Sept 9, 2024 19:26:05 GMT -6

Post by neworleansmike on Sept 9, 2024 19:29:07 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:33:49 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 9, 2024 19:34:21 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 19:36:05 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:39:15 GMT -6

Post by geauxtigers on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:13 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:20 GMT -6

Post by Nathan on Sept 9, 2024 19:42:25 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 19:44:55 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 19:48:16 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Sept 9, 2024 19:49:20 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Current Storms

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings