[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico

Hoping so.

Latest NHC track shows a Category 2 peak before landfalling in Cuba.

I will just wear a poncho if we have rain. Only thing good about rainy weather, it keeps the crowds down.

May not even get a drop of rain out of this in Thibodaux. Esp if it goes east of Lafourche

000
WTNT43 KNHC 050300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

After a period of intensification this afternoon, Rafael has taken a
brief pause on further development. Tonight's Air Force Reserve
Aircraft sampled the tropical storm from 2330-0130 UTC, finding the
structure still somewhat broad with a minimum central pressure of
996 mb from the last fix, only slightly lower than this afternoon.
Earlier AMSR2 and GMI microwave imagery did show the outer core
structure of Rafael is gradually organizing, with plenty of curved
convective bands on the 37-GHz channel along the the eastern flank,
though some dry air appears to be undercutting the cirrus outflow
to the west and preventing organized convection from fully wrapping
around the center. Aircraft flight-level winds at 850 mb were not
all that impressive (40 kt peak), though peak SFMR values in the
same realm still support a maximum intensity of about 40 kt for
this advisory. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is in route
to sample the storm again later tonight.

Rafael appears to be turning more northwestward with a faster
forward motion, estimated tonight at 335/10 kt. The track forecast
for the next 48 h is fairly straightforward, as mid-level ridging
builds in to the northeast of Rafael, which should maintain steering
that should continue a northwestward track, bringing the tropical
storm on its closest approach to Jamaica Tuesday morning, passing
through the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and nearing the Caribbean
coast of western Cuba on Wednesday. After Rafael crosses Cuba and
moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the track forecast remains a
challenge. The spread in ensemble track solutions is notable, and
appears not just related to the vertical depth of Rafael, but also
the synoptic pattern over the United States. A large deep-layer
cutoff low is expected to dig into the four corners region of the
U.S., and how progressive this feature is moving into the central
U.S. will likely determine how much ridging remains over the Gulf of
Mexico in 4-5 days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
prior track for the first 36 h, but is a shade farther right beyond
that time, slightly favoring the GFS and Canadian model solutions
over the UKMET and ECMWF tracks. However, the 200-850 mb steering
flow depicted in the Gulf of Mexico also shows the possibility of a
bifurcation point near 25N 86W in 3 days, and where Rafael ends up
at the time could determine if it stays in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or moves much further westward into the central or western
Gulf. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast in 5
days.

The inner core of Raphael still appears to be in the formative stage
tonight, as convection has yet to become axis-symmetrical around the
low-level circulation, which lacks a tighter wind field. Thus, the
rate of intensification over the next day or so should be slower
than in the final 24 h before Raphael reaches Cuba. Environmental
conditions remain very favorable in the northwestern Caribbean, and
SHIPS rapid intensification guidance still indicates that the
cyclone has a 40-50 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in the next
36 h. The NHC intensity forecast will show 40 kt of intensification
over the next 36 h, with some additional intensification possible
before Raphael moves over Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, westerly
shear increases to 15-25 kt, which could halt intensification and
ultimately lead to weakening as it imports very dry air into Raphael
by the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the prior advisory, and remains on the high side of the overall
intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are
also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where
flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid
to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

They lowered their intensity forecasts by about 10 mph.