[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
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Posts: 894

[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 7:57:29 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this

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Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Nov 6, 2024 7:57:29 GMT -6

And here it's been so darn warm lately... a storm strike here is not out of the question.
We really need to throw climatology out of the window, simply because it's been so warm. It feels like September instead of November.
We're hoping for the shear to tear it apart, but we can't necessarily count on that.

hurricaner
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[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 9:00:24 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Nov 6, 2024 9:00:24 GMT -6

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Last Edit: Nov 6, 2024 9:01:02 GMT -6 by hurricaner

GCWX Board Member

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,613 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 9:40:07 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Nov 6, 2024 9:40:07 GMT -6 This is a major cane...
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

nolasim
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[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 10:14:22 GMT -6 via mobile RowBear, bunkie68 - WBR Parish, and 1 more like this

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Post by nolasim on Nov 6, 2024 10:14:22 GMT -6

I two things I am noticing on the 10:00 a.m. update and disco:

SE LA is no longer in the cone, not to be regionally self-absorbed; also, it is forecast to weaken very significantly as it traverses through the Gulf. I hope both those things hold true.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 10:43:12 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 10:43:12 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 12:01:17 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 12:01:17 GMT -6

Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

T-man
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[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6

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Post by T-man on Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6

I for one definitely do not want to see this pass below us to the southwest only to come hook back up to the southeast. Not a good situation for my area. Hoping for a serious downgrade as it makes its approach to the northern gulf coast later this week.

SKYSUMMIT
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[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 13:23:04 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 13:23:04 GMT -6

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
200 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYE OF RAFAEL NEARING WESTERN CUBA...
...2 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall
within the next few hours.

Another position update will be provided by 3 PM EST (2000 UTC)

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

RowBear
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Posts: 525

[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 13:24:00 GMT -6 T-man, ju, and 2 more like this

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Post by RowBear on Nov 6, 2024 13:24:00 GMT -6

Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6 T-man said:

I for one definitely do not want to see this pass below us to the southwest only to come hook back up to the southeast. Not a good situation for my area. Hoping for a serious downgrade as it makes its approach to the northern gulf coast later this week.

Praying for a *pfft*

Short-sleeve pants, no-sleeve shirt, bare-feet shoes = WARM GOOD / COLD BAD = SAY NO TO ICE AND SNOW !!!

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 13:58:22 GMT -6 marshwarden likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Nov 6, 2024 13:58:22 GMT -6

cobourg Category 1 Posts: 124	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 14:41:31 GMT -6 T-man and ju like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cobourg on Nov 6, 2024 14:41:31 GMT -6 Not a good outcome for any one in Southeast LA... That type of approach is the worst for us in Terrebonne Parish

nolachic GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,252	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 15:04:31 GMT -6 ju likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolachic on Nov 6, 2024 15:04:31 GMT -6 This is going to bring Cuba to its knees. They've already had devastating power grid issues. Very sad for the people of Cuba.
	Thou shall not utter her name

neworleansmike
Category 1

Posts: 387

[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 15:31:07 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by neworleansmike on Nov 6, 2024 15:31:07 GMT -6

Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6 T-man said:

I for one definitely do not want to see this pass below us to the southwest only to come hook back up to the southeast. Not a good situation for my area. Hoping for a serious downgrade as it makes its approach to the northern gulf coast later this week.

Is this even making landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast ? We look to be in the clear as of the last 2 NHC tracks, unless I'm missing something here ?

Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59
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Posts: 9,554

[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 16:27:45 GMT -6 via mobile T-man likes this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Nov 6, 2024 16:27:45 GMT -6

Nov 6, 2024 15:31:07 GMT -6 neworleansmike said:

Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6 T-man said:

I for one definitely do not want to see this pass below us to the southwest only to come hook back up to the southeast. Not a good situation for my area. Hoping for a serious downgrade as it makes its approach to the northern gulf coast later this week.

Is this even making landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast ? We look to be in the clear as of the last 2 NHC tracks, unless I'm missing something here ?

Currently the NHC is showing it approaching Brownsville Friday night/Saturday morning.

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico Nov 6, 2024 18:03:54 GMT -6 via mobile T-man likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Nov 6, 2024 18:03:54 GMT -6 GFS hooks east of us now. It won’t go to Brownsville, I’ll tell you that. LOL
	Last Edit: Nov 6, 2024 18:04:05 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

[TS]TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL - Gulf of Mexico

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Nov 6, 2024 7:57:29 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Nov 6, 2024 9:00:24 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Nov 6, 2024 9:40:07 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Nov 6, 2024 10:14:22 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 10:43:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 12:01:17 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Nov 6, 2024 12:56:47 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 6, 2024 13:23:04 GMT -6

Post by RowBear on Nov 6, 2024 13:24:00 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Nov 6, 2024 13:58:22 GMT -6

Post by cobourg on Nov 6, 2024 14:41:31 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Nov 6, 2024 15:04:31 GMT -6

Post by neworleansmike on Nov 6, 2024 15:31:07 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Nov 6, 2024 16:27:45 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Nov 6, 2024 18:03:54 GMT -6

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